This week in a nutshell (Feb 22nd to Feb 26th)

                                                                                      Technical Talks

As expected, Nifty continued to decline this week. On Friday, the index had a gap down opening and it witnessed a fall of (-3.8%). Opening on 22^nd Feb at 14,999 and closing on 26^th Feb at 14,529, it made a weekly loss of ~3%. For the next week we think that on the downside, 50DMA of 14,445 could act as a support. On the upside, 14,957 is the key level to watch out for as the 20DMA might act as a resistance. With the RSI (45) and MACD on a declining trend, the technical indicators have cooled off a bit but the trend is declining. There could be further possible decline.                                                           

Weekly highlights

• The Indian Cabinet launched a production-linked incentive scheme (PLI) for the Pharmaceutical sector. The outlay of ~Rs 150 bn is approved by the Union Cabinet. This scheme will benefit domestic manufacturers to offer a wide range of affordable medicines to consumers, and it will also help to generate employment. The duration of the scheme would be from FY21 to FY29.
• Agriculture Ministry estimates that India’s foodgrain production will rise by 2% in FY21 to an all-time high of 303.34mn tonnes. The estimates suggest a better output of rice, wheat, pulses, and coarse cereals. Availability of grains reduces dependence on a good monsoon.
• Oil prices climbed this week to fresh 13-month highs after US government data showed a drop in crude output after a deep freeze disrupted production last week. The Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied to 66.96$ and 63.01per barrel respectively.
• Many OEMs (Automobile companies) have written to GOI to address the semiconductor shortage issue. The industry has requested the government to direct embassies to help in restoring supplies of semiconductors.
• The foreign institutional investors’ (FII) bought Rs 181bn worth Indian equity shares last week. The inflows are elevated due to the bulk deal of Bosch Ltd. Excluding this deal, FIIs were net sellers. Domestic institutional investors (DII) were net buyers during this week of Rs 2.8 bn.

Things to watch out for this week

• Auto data- OEMs will be reporting their volumes data for the month of February. The previous 2-3 months performance for almost all OEM’s was impressive led by festive season demand and some pent-up The semi-conductor shortage issue impact on monthly volumes is key to watch. The volume numbers will set the tone for auto OEM’s performance in March.