Recovery seen in June, growth momentum ahead – SBI Cards

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, markets ended lower with Nifty closing at 15,746 (-0.5%). HINDALCO (+4.3%), SBILIFE (+3.2%), and TATASTEEL (+2.7%) were the top gainers on the index while DRREDDY (-10.3%), CIPLA (-3.5%) and AXISBANK (-3.3%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices, METAL (+1.5%) and PSU BANK (+0.4%) were the gainers, while PHARMA (-4.3%), PRIVATE BANK (-0.9%) and REALTY (-0.7%) were the top losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Rama Mohan Rao Amara, MD & CEO, SBI Cards on CNBCTV18 dated 26th July 2021:

• The Company suffered stress from the 3rd week of April till mid-June. Reduction of lockdown restrictions provided the push for the company to ramp up sales and sourcing, and July shows further signs of progress.
• The company’s New Account Acquisition in the first quarter was lower due to the lockdown effect, however, the company has achieved its run rate of 3,00,000 card issuance per month.
• Consumer sentiment and discretionary spending are coming back to pre-pandemic levels. The company is optimistic about further growth in sourcing, which is mostly done through bankers, which was affected due to lockdown.
• Average monthly spending per card was at Rs 11,000 but it’s slowly inching up to indicate increased levels of discretionary spending and rebounding of economic activity in July. The company expects it to grow to Rs 13,000-13,500 levels barring any major disruptions.
• Recovery is seen in both distribution channels- Bankers and Open Market distributions. With the opening up of the economy further, the company expects to grow from its minimum run rate of 3,00,000 card issues per month by leveraging multi-channel partnerships that the company has developed.
• 52-53% of FY21 sourcing was done through banker channels which leverages its presence in tier 3, tier 4 towns, and rural areas, indicative of an increased digital penetration in rural areas.
• Expansion of E-commerce and other online platforms into rural areas has seen a shift to digital transactions across rural areas, which has helped the company tap into its existing banking customer base, which also helps the company keep a track of its delinquencies.
• The impact of the entire Mastercard ban accounts for less than 2% of monthly sourcing for the company, so the company has little risk. Even so, the company is proactively negotiating with its partners to mitigate the effects.

Asset Multiplier Comments:

• Credit Cards Industry in India, is in its nascent stages of penetration, and there’s tremendous growth potential with digital penetration in Indian Rural Markets a thrust area for everyone.
• SBI Cards can leverage the SBI Brand and its penetration across India to unlock growth potential that can rarely be done so easily by any other of its competitors.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

• The closing price of SBI Cards was ₹ 1,017/- as of 27-July-2021.  It traded at 54x/38x the EPS estimate of ₹19/₹ 27 for FY22E/23E.
• The consensus price target of ₹ 1,184/- implies a 44x PE multiple for FY23E EPS of ₹ 27/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”