Richa Varu Rathod | Assetmultiplier

23 Mar

Organic revenue growth guidance of 20% for the medium term: Happiest Minds

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, Nifty closed lower at 17,246 (-0.4%)in the highly volatile session. METAL (+1.2%), OIL AND GAS (+0.4%) and PHARMA (+0.4%) were the top sectoral gainers.AUTO (-1.0%), FINANCIAL SERVICES (-0.9%) and BANK (-0.6%) were top losing sectors.

The top losers were KOTAKBANK (-2.6%), HDFC (-2.4%), and BRITANNIA (-2.1%) while DIVISLAB (+2.5%), HINDALCO (+2.5%) and TATASTEEL (+2.0%) were the top gainers.

Edited Excerpts of an interview with Joseph Anantharaju, Executive VC& Chief Executive Officer-Product Engineering Services, and Venkatraman Narayanan, MD and CFO, Happiest Minds with CNBC-TV18 on 22^nd March, 2022:

The IT industry is facing two concerns i.e. higher attrition and margin pressure. On margins, the MD commented that the company has been outperforming its guidance of 22-24%(EBITDAM) for the last four quarters. This is largely on account of Work From Home (WFH)scenario and other cost saving factors.
For FY23E,the MD stated that demand seems to be robust and the company would be working on maintaining the EBITDA Margins at 24-25%. The pressure would be from wage hikes to retain the talent as the attrition rates are high. The new recruitment would cost higher. This increase in cost is expected to be compensated through rate increases to the customers. The favourable exchange rate is also helping to maintain the margins.
MD’s Comment on the Russia-Ukraine conflict: There is flow of work continuing to India. Earlier it was because of entire digitalization move, which was applying pressure on supply side. Now he expects this conflict to add to this pressure. According to him, demand would not be an issue, but meeting the demand and requirements of the customers and attracting talent would be a challenge.
The bill rates of services rendered from Eastern Europe are higher than services rendered from India. There is a headroom to cover for the increased cost by negotiating for higher rates without impacting the quality of deliverables. This is the upside for the Indian Tech Industry.
On the company’s organic revenue growth guidance of 20%, the MD clarified that it is for a period of time spanning five years. He expects the revenue growth range to be around 32% YoY for FY22E.
On high attrition rate problem, VC commented that the company expects the number to trend down a bit. It has taken a few measures, upcoming high increments and increased level of engagement, learning and development training to attract people is expected to maintain or reduce the current attrition levels. With current campus batch coming in and supply increasing,the company expects the attrition rates to taper down and to release some pressure on margins going forward.
The contribution of BFSI segment have been reducing in past couple of quarters. BFSI sector for the company have not been a traditional segment. Consulting, leasing and payroll service providers are the type of clients of the company. BFSI sector have been highly penetrated by the earlier entrants and large IT companies. Happiest Minds have been entering BFSI sector in adjacent areas rather than the traditional/old ones.
The marginal drop in BFSI segment is because of the recalibrations and reallocation in the verticals. Edutech is growing faster than BFSI in last two quarters. The recent merger and acquisition has lead to faster growth in Consumer Packaged Goods (COG) segment.
There is openness from existing and new customers with regards to considering the rate adjustments due to inflation and wage increases.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We think the strong deal momentum across verticals, emphasis on digital business and client centric approach may help the company to achieve its medium-term guidance of 20%+ revenue growth.
The ongoing talent crunch may keep margins under check in the near term, but the initiatives taken by the company may help to maintain the EBITDA Margins stable at 24-25%.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

The closing price of Happiest Minds was ₹ 1,145/- as of 23-March-2022. It traded at 76x/ 68x the consensus earnings per share estimate of ₹15/ 17 for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 1,510/- implies a PE Multiple of 89x on FY24E EPS estimate of ₹ 17/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Richa Varu Rathod Happiest minds 0 Comments Read more...

27 Feb

This Week in a nutshell (Feb 21st to Feb 25th)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 21^st Feb at 17,192 and closed on 25^th Feb at 16,658. During the week, NIFTY was down 3.58%. At the current juncture, on the weekly chart, the index has breached the 20-weekly moving average while the RSI is at 45. Going ahead, For the bulls, 16,800-17,065 would be the immediate hurdle and the recovery may continue as long as 16,550 is held decisively.

Nifty Media (-7.7%), PSU Banks (-5.7%) and Auto (-4.6%) were the top losers and there were no gainers.

Weekly highlights

US stock index futures tumbled on Monday after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, increasing concerns about a major war. It continued to be in red as Ukraine declared a state of emergency and the US State Department said a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains potentially imminent.
After weeks of warnings from Western leaders, Russia unleashed a three-pronged invasion of Ukraine from the north, east and south on Thursday, in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two that threatened to upend the post-Cold War order on the continent.
However, US stocks recovered sharply reversal as US President Joe Biden unveiled harsh new sanctions against Russia after Moscow began an all-out invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions announced on Thursday targeted Russia’s banks but left its energy sector largely untouched.
The Dow on Friday registered its biggest daily percentage gain since Nov-20 with the market rebounding for a second day from the sharp selloff leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Oil prices fell below USD 100 a barrel, easing some concerns about higher energy costs, and all 11 of the major S&P 500 sectors ended up on Friday.
Coming to Indian markets, NIFTY tumbled more than 3 percent and extended the losing streak in the third straight week ended February 25 amid escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The market witnessed extreme volatility in the last week amid uncertainty over war-like situation and registered the biggest single day fall on Thursday after Russia invaded Ukraine, however, witnessed a smart pull back on Friday after the US and UK imposed new sanction on Russia.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth of Rs 1,98,435 mn, and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth of Rs 2,15,118 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

Volatility to remain high in the coming days as events in Ukraine will dictate the market moves, but that focus eventually will turn back to the Federal Reserve and the outlook for interest rates.
The Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might have a long-term effect on global growth and inflation as it will push up the commodity prices. With higher commodity and oil prices, companies will have to pass on the higher input prices to the consumers and if not, then margins are going to get hit and will bring down the earnings.

By Richa Varu Rathod #WeekInANutshell 0 Comments Read more...

27 Jan

Expect NIMs to be in the range of 3.2-3.3% – Federal Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, Nifty closed lower at 17,110 (-1%) in the highly volatile session after Federal Reserve in its policy outcome indicated interest rates hike soon.

PSU BANK (+5.1%), BANK (+0.7%), and MEDIA (+0.6%) were the top gainers and IT (-3.6%), CONSUMER DURABLES (-2.3%), and HEALTHCARE INDEX (-2.3%) were top losing sectors.

The top losers were HCLTECH (-3.9%), TECHM (-3.6%), and DRREDDY (-3.4%) while AXISBANK (+3.3%), SBIN (+2.8%) and CIPLA (+2.3%) were the top gainers.

Expect NIMs to be in the range of 3.2-3.3% – Federal Bank

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Shyam Srinivasan, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Bank with ETNow on 25^th January 2022:

In 3QFY22, Federal Bank’s advances grew by 4.5% QoQ and 12% YoY. 3QFY22 showed all-around improvement. The performance was broad-based which is an encouraging sign. Some businesses were driven by economic activity and the bank’s gain in market share.
In 3QFY22:
- Corporate business come back strongly, and
- Retail, which has been trending well, gathered steam and kept its pace with the developments in the economy.
The overall numbers show credit growth and improvement in the quality of the book.
The credit quality of the Bank is normally in the top quartile and credit costs have been well managed across lengths of time because of disciplined lending.
In 3QFY22, Federal Bank recorded its best-ever net profit and ROA crossed 1%. It crossed the Rs 5,000 mn quarter mark in net profits. So, it has been a diversified, broad-based, and on-target performance.
Generally, Bank’s performance is ahead of the industry by a multiple. As the economy picked up pace in 3QFY22, Federal Bank saw a good pick up and its market share gain amplified. The bank is witnessing organic, structural, and holistic growth and it is not one-off bolstering performance.
The bank is confident of continuing its momentum in 4QFY22E provided the economy is moderately affected by Coronavirus third wave.
The bank believes that green shoots in the economy should play through and if it does, the bank’s market share gain will be even more pronounced.
Looking at the last two-three years of the incremental credit in the country, the bank’s share is higher than its normal market share.
The bank is gathering momentum across and believes as things improve in the economy, its market share gain should be visible across the spectrum.
The credit cost of the bank has reached its bottom at 22 bps and there is no scope for further improvement. Mr. Srinivasan thinks that a normalized credit cost on an annualized basis of around 50-60 bps in a steady state would be a good place to be in. The bank always tries to maintain a balance between the kind of business momentum, and credit cost.
Recovery upgrade for 3QFY22 was strong and close to Rs 3,000 mn. Slippages in 3QFY22 were Rs 3,300 mn and almost matched the slippages of the 2QFY22. The incremental recovery upgrades are doing well, and collection efficiency is strong.
The CEO expects to see a pick up in capex in 2HCY22 as capacities are getting built-in.
Bank’s share gain is visible as it doesn’t have the baggage of any adverse credit and companies are beginning to look at borrowing opportunities. For a greater part of CY21 corporates had other borrowing opportunities to meet their credit requirements but those are turning out to be a little more expensive. So, banking and bank credit are looking more attractive and as that happens, Federal Bank is well-positioned to gain share.
Sequentially, the corporate book grew ~7% in 3QFY22. The bank is confident that this will repeat as its strengths, reach out programs and appetite remains strong. Bank thinks as capex picks up, the corporate book will grow even faster.
The Bank has been giving NIMs guidance to be in the range of 3.2% to 3.3%. The bank is presently at 3.27% levels and sees room for improvement of another 5 odd basis points.
NIMs are impacted by the mix of the book, frequency of credit growth, the quantum of credit growth, and reversals in slippages. Bank has successfully controlled all these variables and demonstrated NIMs expansion. Typically, in a rising interest rate scenario, NIMs tend to expand for banks.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We think the Bank’s performance in terms of the advances growth, profitability, and asset quality has been strong.
We expect this momentum to continue considering the improving economic condition which will aid higher disbursements and better asset quality.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

The closing price of Federal Bank was ₹ 100/- as of 27-January-2022. It traded at 1.08x/0.98x/ 0.87x the consensus Book Value Per Share estimates of ₹ 88.4/ 98.1/ 110 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 118/- implies a PBVPS Multiple of 1.07x on FY24E BVPS estimate of ₹ 110/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod Federal Bank Banks, economy 0 Comments Read more...

17 Jan

The attrition situation won’t change for the next few quarters – Mindtree

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, Nifty closed higher at 18,308 (+0.3%). AUTO (+2.1%), REALTY (+1.3%), and CONSUMER DURABLES (+0.5%) were the top gainers while HEALTHCARE (-0.9%), PHARMA (-0.7%), and BANK (-0.4%) were top losing sectors.

The top losers were HCLTECH (-5.7%), HDFCBANK (-1.4%), and CIPLA (-1.3%) while HEROMOTOCO (+5.1%), GRASIM (+3.5%), and ONGC (+3.2%) were the top gainers.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Debashis Chatterjee, Managing Director, and Chief Executive Officer, Mindtree with Economic Times on 14^th January 2021:

A lot of transformation deals are happening as the clients are looking at maximising their revenues. Clients are also looking at cost optimisation and there is a lot of effort in terms of workplace modernisation, and workforce transformation for every client.
Most of the deals are digital and cloud led which are short cycle deals. The short cycle deals over some time develop into larger strategic relationships.
From an overall TCV standpoint, Mindtree has YTD USD 1.2 bn deal wins, which is 21% up YoY. The pipeline is robust and the company is confident of the deals to flow through in the coming quarters.
The deal pipeline is a mix of both large and transformation deals. At present, the short cycle deals are more and the company expects it to eventually get translated into multiyear initiatives.
The company is focused on taking the margins to healthy levels. It is satisfied with a 20% EBITDA margin on yearly basis. It has put processes to track the margins and various levers which are working well for the company.
The travel transport and hospitality portfolio has reached the pre-pandemic levels (USD 200 mn run rate in 3QFY22).
The company has diversified its travel transport and hospitality portfolio beyond airlines and hospitality. It has ventured into food and beverage, surface transformation, and cruise liners making the portfolio more resilient to the virus. The company expects this portfolio to get less impacted by the omicron variant.
Mindtree has been looking at Merger and Acquisition (M&A) and will be open to looking at inorganic M&As as well. It has done one inorganic in the past and is seeing good results.
At least for the next couple of quarters, Mr. Chatterjee doesn’t think the attrition scenario to change. The management has organized themselves to deal with and manage the talent in a more nimble and agile manner.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We think Mindtree has a resilient business model and has a proven track record of strong execution capabilities. The company’s plan to hire at least 1,500 freshers per quarter displays management’s confidence in winning deals going ahead.
We believe robust deal wins, sustainable growth, focus on multiyear engagements and margin expansion will aid topline and bottom-line growth.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

The closing price of Mindtree was ₹ 4,510/- as of 17-January-2022. It traded at 47x/ 41x/ 36x the consensus earnings estimates of ₹ 96/ 111/ 128 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 4,570/- implies a P/E Multiple of 36x on FY24E EPS estimate of ₹ 128/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod IT, Mindtree 0 Comments Read more...

15 Jan

This Week in a nutshell (10-14 Jan)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 10^th Jan at 17,913 and closed on 14^th Jan at 18,255. During the week, NIFTY added another 2.5% and ended up with a decent bullish candle on the weekly chart, suggesting the bulls are in no mood to give up. At the current juncture, on the weekly chart, the index has breached the 20-weekly moving average while the RSI is at 64. Going ahead, for the bulls, 18,375-18,400 would be the immediate hurdle and on the flip side, 18,150 would be the support level. If the index succeeds to close below the same, the Nifty50 could retest 18,050-18,000 levels.

Among sectoral indices, Realty (+4.9%), PSU Banks (+4.1%), and Media (+3.3%) were the top gainers while this week while FMCG (-0.13%) was the only loser.

Weekly highlights

The Indian Indices opened high as India Inc started the earnings season with a bang giving hopes to investors that the numbers will surprise positively.
Amid weak global markets and rising COVID-19 cases, the domestic market displayed strong momentum on expectations of a healthy start to the earnings season. However, rising inflation and a worsening pandemic soured the mood on Dalal Street by the end of the week.
The World Bank projected India’s GDP growth at 8.3% for FY22E and 8.7% for FY23E.
The National Statistical Office released inflation data during the week. India’s headline retail inflation jumped to 5.59 percent in Dec-21. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print is 68 basis points higher than the Nov-21 level of 4.91 percent. It is the highest inflation has been since Jul-21 when it had also come in at 5.59 percent.
Globally, bourses were muted at the start of the week as reports of record-high Eurozone inflation at 5% kept investors on edge. However, Fed’s testimony to Congress uplifted the sentiments of the investors going ahead.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged on Tuesday that high inflation has emerged as a serious threat to the Federal Reserve’s goal of helping put more Americans back to work and that the Fed will raise rates more than it now plans if needed to stem the surging prices.
The U.S. stock indexes rose as the week progressed after data showed that while U.S. inflation was at its highest in decades.
The consumer price index rose 0.5% in Dec-21 after advancing 0.8% in Nov-21. In addition to higher rents, consumers also paid more for food. Prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped 7 percent YoY in Dec-21. This shows that rising costs for food, rent, and other necessities are heightening the financial pressures on America’s households.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department was published on Thursday showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to an eight-week high in the first week of January amid raging COVID-19 infections.
However, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, but all three major indexes suffered weekly losses as the prospect of rising interest rates and weaker economic data cast some doubt on the strength of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The foreign institutional investors (FII) sold equities worth Rs 40,029 mn, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 36,293 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

Markets will react to the results of two heavyweights- HCL Technologies and HDFC Bank in early trade on Monday.
Earnings will continue to influence the market mood. Rising COVID-19 cases and threats to further curb movement and businesses and rising inflation might also set the direction of the markets.

By Richa Varu Rathod #WeekInANutshell 0 Comments Read more...

05 Jan

Clocked 100% collection efficiency in December-21 – M&M Financial Services

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, the domestic market witnessed a recovery following a mild dip. Increasing covid cases leading to stricter restrictions pressurized market volatility. NIFTY closed at 17,925 (+0.7%).

BANK (+2.3%), PRIVATE BANK(+2.1%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+2.0%) were the top gainers and IT (-1.9%), MEDIA (-0.4%), and HEALTHCARE (-0.3%) were the top losing sectors.

The top losers were TECHM (-2.8%), INFY (-2.7%), and HCLTECH (-1.7%) while BAJAJFINSV (+5.0%), BAJFINANCE (+4.4%), and KOTAKBANK (+3.5%) were the top gainers.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Ramesh Iyer, Managing Director, M&M Financial Services with ET on 4^th January 2021:

A turnaround was seen in rural India in terms of vehicles and tractors. Growth across all categories was witnessed by the company and that has registered the growth in disbursements.
Rural demand continues to be buoyant. The yields have been good because of the good monsoon. Therefore the sentiments are continuing to remain positive across the country.
Good growth momentum was seen by the company and the recoveries have been good for the company.
In tractors, volume growth and gain in market share were witnessed by the company. M&M Financial Services have gone deeper and has covered more dealerships. It has put people across various dealerships which have aided the volume growth in tractors.
Productwise Performance:
- M&M Financial Services has gained market share in tractors and Mahindra auto products.
- Cars are witnessing volume growth.
- Pre-owned vehicles have been a very buoyant segment.
There had been temporary pressure since 1QFY22 because of the market conditions. As the consumers come back to the market and start earning, a rollback is expected which was witnessed in 2QFY22. The company continues to see recovery in 3QFY22 and is confident that this momentum will continue going forward. It has clocked 100% collection efficiency in the month of Dec-21 and is improving on a month-on-month basis.
The NPAs are steadily reducing from 1QFY22 and the company is confident of bringing it below 4% levels by end of FY22E. The second half is always good for the rural market and the post-harvest quarter is always the best.
The company is seeing a turnaround in economic activity. Tourism has picked up substantially which is contributing to people earning better and being able to repay well.
Collections from every segment and every geography have been witnessed by the company. It seems to be the trend going forward and therefore M&M Financial Services is confident to bring net NPA to below 4% by Mar-22E.
On the latest norms by RBI on asset quality, Mr. Iyer commented that regulatory requirements are under the IRAC norms and not under the Ind-AS norms. Therefore, as far as the P&L is concerned, a major impact on the P&L might not be seen. However, under the IRAC norms, one would see an increase in NPA due to the approach that would now have to be adopted going forward. But the ground reality is that these consumers earn and pay and therefore adhering to a particular due date is difficult for them and there will be a little pressure point for the retail industry. This will cause a little increase in NPAs so far as IRAC norms are concerned.
The company doesn’t see any substantial change in the loan mix as far as AUM is concerned. AUM growth for FY22E is expected to remain range-bound because it is difficult to catch up with the business lost in one quarter. But the sentiments are positive and growth is expected from FY23E.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We think strong buoyancy in demand, particularly in rural centers, driven by healthy farm cash flows and a pickup in Infrastructure spending by the Center and state governments will help aid revenue growth.
With a recovery in collections, M&M Financial Services seems to be well-positioned to accelerate its disbursements and gain market share.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

The closing price of M&M Financial Services was ₹ 154/- as of 05-Jan-22. It traded at 1.22x/1.12x/1.00 x the consensus BVPS estimate of ₹ 125/136/154 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 202/- implies a PBVPS multiple of 1.31x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 154/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod M&M Financial Services 0 Comments Read more...

27 Dec

Company confident of delivering 60-70% CAGR over next 3 years: Dixon Tech

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, Benchmark indices erased previous session losses and ended higher with Nifty closing at 17,086 (+0.49%).

PHARMA (+1.62%), HEALTHCARE (+1.42%) and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+0.91%) were the top gainers and MEDIA (-1.06%), FMCG (-0.08%) and METAL (-0.06%) were top losing sectors.

The top losers were HINDALCO (-3.7%), BRITANNIA (-3.36%), and ONCG (-3.27%) while TECHM (+3.44%), CIPLA (+2.26%) and DRREDDY (+2.06%) were the top gainers.

Company confident of delivering 60-70% CAGR over next 3 years: Dixon Tech

Edited Excerpts of an interview with Atul Lall, Managing Director, Dixon Tech with CNBCTV18 on 24^th Dec, 2021:

According to broker report the company is expected to deliver 60-70% sales CAGR over the next 3 years. Mr Lall stated that the company is confident of delivering these numbers.
The company has grown from Rs 44 bn in FY20 to Rs 64 bn in revenues in FY21. The company is targeting to reach Rs 110 bn in FY22E even after Jun-21 quarter being weak due to Covid-19. It expects revenue to be in the range of Rs 170 bn in FY23E. He is confident of this aggressive growth and to be in the lead position in its sector.
On the margin front, FY22E has been extremely difficult year for Dixon, particularly for Original Design Manufacturing business. Softening of commodity prices has been seen both in polymer and metal side over the past few weeks. A decline in the freight cost is also been witnessed recently and is relatively stable at present.
In B2B (Business to Business) there is a lag in passing off the cost increases to the customers. Company expects to pass on the price increases by next (Mar-22E) quarter but in the Dec-21 quarter the margins are expected to be under pressure.
The chip shortage situation has improved slightly but the situation is not fully under control. Most of the companies including Dixon have aligned their forecasting, have started building more inventories and are well aware of the longer lead times. The production situation is much better but the chip shortage problem has not been resolved yet.
There was a Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) survey in Tirupati plant and corporate office pertaining to Television vertical. The issues raised by DRI were interpretational in nature. The company extended all the possible support to the officers and the company is committed to defend its stand in front of DRI.
Focus of FY22E – Dixon has got into Mobile vertical and it is expected to be the growth driver going forward and to contribute significantly to the total revenue of the company.
Dixon has got into a Joint Venture with Bharti and have got the approval under the telecom verdict to manufacture consumer premises devices. It is expected to start manufacturing from Mar-22E quarter for Airtel. In FY23E a huge ramp up is expected by the company from Mobile vertical.
Dixon have tied up with some major customers for manufacturing IT products, a ramp up in its production is expected.
Dixon have launched fully automatic top loading machines which is expected to contribute to the growth from FY23E.
Dixon is also rolling out Refrigerator products, the production of the same is expected to start from 4QFY22E. A reasonably good growth is expected to be seen from the existing verticals.
Under the PLI scheme: The company have started production and investment on IT hardware side, telecom Side and white boards. Backward integration for lighting products under PLI scheme is under process. Company expects to start the production of components of lighting products from 1QFY23E.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We think Dixon is one of the largest beneficiaries of the government’s PLI scheme and new segments such as electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component will help the company to achieve its target of 60% CAGR for over next 3 years.
Domestic mobile production is set to grow under PLI scheme. We believe Dixon is one of the main beneficiaries which will drive future revenue for Dixon.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

The closing price of Dixon Tech Ltd was ₹ 5,617/- as of 27-Dec-21. It traded at 127x/72x/52x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 44.2/77.7/108 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 5,079/- implies a PE multiple of 47x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 108/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod Dixon technologies 0 Comments Read more...

15 Dec

Chip Shortage impacting Light Commercial Vehicle sales – Ashok Leyland

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets continued to decline for a third straight session on the back of unsupportive global cues. The Nifty index ended lower by 0.6% at 17,226 levels. REALTY (-1.9%) PSU BANK (-1.4%) and MEDIA (-1.4%) were the top losers while AUTO (+0.5%) was the only gaining sector today. BAJAJFINANCE (-2.9%), BAJAJFINSV (-2.5%), and ADANIPORTS (-2.4%) were the top losers while SUNPHARMA (+2.8%) KOTAKBANK (+1.5%), and MARUTI (+0.9%) were the top gainers.

Chip Shortage impacting Light Commercial Vehicle sales – Ashok Leyland

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Sanjay Saraswat, head of Medium and Heavy Commercial vehicle (M&HCV) at Ashok Leyland with CNBC-TV18 on 14^th December 2021:

Ashok Leyland saw a pick-up in sales in the month of November-21, the overall numbers were above street expectations.
The M&HCV sales improved 10% YoY, but Light Commercial Vehicles sales continued to remain under pressure.
The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Trucks are performing well and growing faster than other segments.
Although MCVs performance is not satisfactory, it is expected to perform well from 4QFY22E.
According to the truck financers, the demand for Tipper Segment is improving on the back of increasing infrastructure and mining activities. Mr. Saraswat commented that the Tipper segment is growing equal to the industry growth. The company has improved its market share in the last 2 months and is continuing to improve further on an MoM basis. The company has a wide range of Tippers available as it has recently launched Avatar Brand under Tipper Segment which is doing phenomenally well.
From FY22E, Company has decided to keep the wholesale and retail volumes equal. In the month of Nov-21, the retail and wholesale sales volumes were almost the same.
According to the Federation of Automobiles Dealers, although the demand is back in Commercial Vehicles it is still away from pre-pandemic levels. Mr. Saraswat commented that FY18/FY19 was the best period in terms of sales and currently the numbers are far away from that period. But every month and quarter things are improving and moving in that direction.
The company is experiencing chip shortage issues for some of the models which are impacting the sales. The company is not able to fulfill the demand for vehicles especially LCVs due to the shortage.
Year till date FY22E, industry sales have doubled on a YoY basis. The base of FY21 was low due to pandemic and BSIV to BSVI transition, especially 1HFY21. For 2HFY22E the growth rate is expected to decline as the base improved gradually. For FY22E, Mr. Saraswat expects the volume growth to be in the range of 30-35% YoY.

Asset Multiplier Comments

We expect sales to pick up gradually in 2HFY22E on the back of seasonality, improvement in core economic indicators, increase in replacement demand, and easing restrictions.
We believe, Ashok Leyland is well-positioned to benefit from a strong recovery in the CV cycle on account of new product launches and a well-diversified product portfolio. It will also benefit from the cyclical recovery, especially in buses and higher tonnage trucks where it has a higher market share.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

The closing price of Ashok Leyland Ltd was ₹ 126/- as of 15-December-21. It traded at 26x/17x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 5.0/7.6 for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 158/- implies a PE multiple of 21x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 7.6/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod Ashok Leyland 0 Comments Read more...

06 Dec

Real Estate demand growth driven by rising income levels – HDFC

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, markets plunged sharply in continuation to Friday’s fall. After the flat start, weak global cues and updates on the new COVID variant started weighing on the sentiment as the day progressed.

NIFTY ended 1.7% down at 16,912. IT (-2.7%), HEALTHCARE(-1. 9%), and PHARMA (-1.9%) were the top losers and there were no sectoral gainers. The top losers were INDUSINDBK (-3.7%), TATACONSUM (-3.4%), and BAJAJFINSV (-3.3%) while UPL (+0.4%) was the only stock in green.

Real Estate demand growth driven by rising income levels – HDFC

Edited excerpts of an interview with MR. Keki Mistry, Vice-Chairman and Managing Director of Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC Ltd) with CNBCTV18 on 3^rd December 2021:

On new norms on recognition of Non-Performing Assets for Banks and NBFCs issued by RBI: He stated that a few years back NPA were recognized on a 180 days basis that got changed to 90 days. According to the new guidelines published by RBI, once the account is recognized as NPA, Banks won’t be able to upgrade it to standard assets till the whole loan has been repaid. Earlier, an NPA account, after payment of 1-2 installments could be categorized as a standard asset. Temporarily, there will be limited impact on Profit and Loss Account for most of the companies including HDFC but the reported Gross NPAs number will look higher for next 3-4 quarters.
The real estate market has steadily picked up after the slowdown in the 1HCY21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant lockdowns.
Mr. Mistry thinks that the interest rates have been bottomed out but he doesn’t see that having a significant impact on the market.
He thinks that the runway for growth is across the country. In the period from CY17-CY20, the demand was largely focused on the tier-II tier-III towns in the outskirts of big cities. In the last one or two years, cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad, and Chennai are reporting strong growth. A pickup in demand in the metro cities has been witnessed recently.
Mr. Mistry attributed the rise in demand to

- Income levels rising in the past few years. He explained that the real estate prices have been stable but the income levels grew on an average by 8% per annum in the last 4 years resulting in cumulative 34-35% growth in income levels.
- Low-interest rates
- Feel good factor: He stated that the malls, hospitals, shops, hotels, and restaurants are full as the feel-good effect is driving and keeping people motivated.
- The myth that there is oversupply in Mumbai and Delhi markets has disappeared, so people are not waiting for property rates to subside anymore.
The HDFC chief believes that affordability has increased in the market and it is an opportune time to buy real estate. To supplement this, he said that October-21 saw the highest level of loan disbursements by HDFC. This indicates strong demand and he expects it to sustain for a long time.
Mr. Mistry also believes that the lending rates have bottomed out but he does not expect the RBI to start raising rates in a hurry. But throughout the next 6-12 months rate hike is possible. It depends a lot on global factors like inflation, oil prices, and other factors which are not within our control.
The yield curve, according to him, has been steep due to excess liquidity in the system. This has been reflected in the demand seen in the high-end market which has seen a pickup after being subdued from CY17 to CY20.

Asset Multiplier Comments

Looking at the macro growth drivers, well-diversified loan portfolio, and adequate liquidity on hand our outlook over the long term remains positive on HDFC Ltd.
We think the new rule would impact in the near short term but in long term we expect the NPA levels to normalize. Stable collection efficiency and provisions higher than regulatory requirements will help support the company to maintain a healthy Balance Sheet.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

The closing price of HDFC Ltd was ₹ 2,769/- as of 06-December-21. It traded at 4.2x/3.9x/3.5x the consensus BVPS estimate of ₹ 659/705/781 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 3,251/- implies a PBV multiple of 4.2x on FY24E BVPS of ₹ 781/-.

By Richa Varu Rathod HDFC Demand pick-up, HDFC, NBFCs 0 Comments Read more...

28 Nov

This Week in a nutshell (Nov 22nd to Nov 26th)

This Week in a nutshell (Nov 22^nd to Nov 26^th)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 22^nd Nov at 17,796 and closed on 26^th Nov at 17,026. During the week, NIFTY lost more than 4 percent and has formed a bearish candle with its opening and closing being near the highest as well as the lowest point of the week, respectively. At the current juncture, on the weekly chart, the index has breached the 20-weekly moving average while the RSI marked a fresh 14-week low.

Going ahead, the level of 16,700 is likely to act as strong support in the near term and the levels of 17,300 and 17,480 will act as immediate resistance levels. Nifty Pharma gained 2.3 percent this week while Nifty Auto (-8.4%) and Nifty PSU Bank (-6.5%) lost the most.

Weekly highlights

The week started in red amid concerns over the government’s reform measures after farm laws repeal announcement and weak listing of the country’s largest fintech firm Paytm.
However, on Thursday optimism over near-term growth prospects boosted sentiment after credit rating agency Moody’s said it expects India’s economic growth to rebound strongly in the next financial years.
The party was short-lived as on Friday the new variant of Coronavirus certainly spooked the market participants across the globe. NIFTY was down by 2.9 percent and also, marked a fresh swing low on Friday by slipping below the 17,000 mark.
As per UK officials, the new Coronavirus variant has a spike protein that is dramatically different from the one, which vaccines are based, raising fears it could evade the immune response reported by early reports from the media.
Wall Street retreated from record highs on Monday, and shares of lenders rallied as two-year US Treasury yields rose after President Joe Biden tapped Jerome Powell to continue as Federal Reserve chair. However, rising Treasury yields prompted investors to sell Tesla and other Big Tech names and buy stocks with lower valuations.
On Friday, S&P500 was down by 2.27% due to worries about a new strain of the virus, named Omicron. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.5%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since oct-20. The new strain might complicate the outlook for how aggressively the Federal Reserve normalizes monetary policy to fight inflation.
S. officials said Friday they would impose travel restrictions on eight southern African countries in response to the new variant found in South Africa. It has also been reported in Israel and Belgium.
The foreign institutional investors (FII) sold equities worth Rs 21,125 mn, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 10,934 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

Post 2QFY22 quarterly earnings season, markets this week will be driven mostly by updates related to the new coronavirus variant that sent equities tumbling globally on Friday, macroeconomic data announcements, and auto sales numbers.
US: Investors will be watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s appearance before Congress to discuss the government’s COVID response on 30^th Nov as well as U.S. employment numbers, due out next Friday.

By Richa Varu Rathod #WeekInANutshell 0 Comments Read more...

Author - Richa Varu Rathod