Bank

25 Aug

Housing Finance book is expected to grow five times in next five years – Bandhan Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
Markets started the week on a positive note with Nifty50 rising 95 points higher at 11,466. Among the index, ZEEL (4.8%), KOTAKBANK (3.5%) and INDUSIND (3.3%) were the top performing stocks while POWERGRID (-2.0%), M&M (-1.2%) and ADANIPORTS (-1.1%) were the laggards. Within the sectoral indices, PVT BANK (2.4%), BANK (2.4%) and FIN SERVICE (2.1%) were the top performing sectors whereas REALTY (-1.0%), PHARMA (-0.4%) and IT (-0.3%) were the only the sectors closed the day in red.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr.Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Managing Director & CEO, Bandhan Bank (Bandhan) published in Economic Times dated 23rd August 2020:
It is good that failure on large exposures happened very early into Bandhan Bank’s journey, which helped limit the losses and affirmed that it will never lend to the large segment again.
He said that there is a huge opportunity in the rural affordable housing segment. The focus is on housing finance space and the target is to grow the loan book by five times in the next five years to Rs 1 lakh crore. This, he expects will occupy nearly a third of the Rs 3.5 lakh crore lending book that the bank has targeted.
The business has had cycles of good growth, which gets followed with some impact due to changes in the overall environment beyond the bank’s control, and specifically mentioned demonetisation and the current COVID-19 pandemic which led to a full wipeout in collections.
When asked about setbacks like repayments impact due to the anti-CAA protests over the last year, he said till date, not a single rupee of loan has been written off in Assam and the reverses it faced because of the protests are a part of business.
After becoming a bank, its rate of lending has reduced to 17.95 per cent from 22.4 percent earlier and will reduce further as the share of the low-cost deposits will grow, he said, admitting that in the beginning, getting people to deposit was a challenge because the whole system had been tuned as a model focusing on lending and not liabilities.
Small borrowers prefer paying because they understand the importance of a commitment to repay and do not mind sharing the benefits of a growing business with the financier who helped make it possible. He also said more than the rate of interest, a borrower is more concerned with delivery of simple and timely credit for all.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: marketscreener website)
The closing price of Bandhan Bank was ₹ 295/- as of 24-Aug-2020. It traded at 2.7x/ 2.3x/ 1.9x the consensus Book Value estimate of ₹ 108/ 129/ 159 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 372/- implies a BV multiple of 2.3x on FY23E Book Value of ₹ 159.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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18 Aug

‘Even with Covid, our fresh slippages will be in control’ – SBI

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday, NIFTY ended up 81 pts (+0.7%) at 11,259.
Among the sectoral indices, MEDIA (+2.6%), AUTO (+2.4%) and METAL (+2.5%) were top gainers while PSUBANK (-0.5%) and PHARMA (-0.3%) were the losers.
Among the stocks, NTPC (+7.5%), EICHERMOT (+4.8%) and ZEEL (+4.7%) were the top gainers. SBI (-1.6%), BHARTIARTL (-1.5%) and BPCL (-1.3%) were the top losers.

‘Even with Covid, our fresh slippages will be in control’ – SBI

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Rajnish Kumar, Chairman of SBI with Business Standard dated 14th Aug, 2020:

SBI Chairman Rajnish Kumar doesn’t see any reason to fear a sudden rise in bad debt during the pandemic. Legacy loans are well taken care of, the bank has enough capital, and the exposure to sectors affected by the Covid-19 stress is minuscule in relation to the balance sheet.

• His comments on restructuring of retail loans: SBI team is working on what the policy would be and to whom the relief should be extended. But mostly, the relief, if needed, would be for housing loans where a person has lost a job and is unable to pay his EMI or there’s been a temporary salary cut. In the case of SBI, the housing loan book under moratorium is about ~ Rs 32,000 crore. But he believes most customers would start paying EMIs from September as the moratorium comes to an end. But whoever needs relief should get it.
• When asked whether banks will have enough time to prepare resolution for all under the latest restructuring scheme, he replied that he doesn’t think they will have to wait for the RBI for such an exercise. There are not many accounts in the corporate group of ~ Rs 1,500 crore and above which would need to go to the committee because a lot of work has already happened under the June 7 framework. There will be some modalities that the committee will suggest, but the ground work such as who would need restructuring, their projections, estimations, etc., can be done.
• His views on banker’s ability to project the topline and bottom line: Future projection is the first thing that is considered in any proposal. Of course, the Covid-19 scenario brings in a lot of uncertainty. Nobody knows how long the pandemic will continue and what the revival plan will be. When you give credit or restructure, it’s based on certain assumptions, and even the current exercise will have to return to those assumptions, particularly for the term loans. The maximum one can postpone or restructure the instalments is for two years. So, whoever had to pay in five years will have to pay now in seven years. Another criterion is that the account should be performing. Whatever you have to do is within these two boundaries.
• When asked if SBI will need additional funds for the restructuring exercise he informed that the bank already has Rs 20,000 crs as an enabling provision. SBI will need to raise money from the equity market only if there is a growth in assets, for any sort of provisions for bad loans. For any risk capital, SBI have sufficient earnings and have the value sitting in subsidiaries.
• He stated that restructuring for retail has come for the first time, and is sure that lenders will make their assessment of portfolio. Moratorium by itself is not a pointer that everybody would apply or need restructuring. In the case of SBI, housing loans worth Rs 32,000 crore are under moratorium where zero or one installment has been paid. He believes many of them will start paying from September as moratorium was available and they were preserving cash. The loan to value for SBI in this segment is 60%. The restructuring would be needed in cases where income was impacted which is not a huge number and hence, any fear of large-scale restructuring is uncalled for.
• When asked whether he is concerned about the NPA situation if the pandemic lingers, he said that the scenarios are not uniform for every bank or every institution, it depends on the underwriting practices, or to which sectors they are exposed to, and what their level of risk diversification is. When negative growth is expected, it is natural that stress in the system will go up. It is a wait and watch situation for everyone. In the last three years, most banks have done a lot of clean-up and provision coverage ratio are at an all-time high. As for SBI, the provision coverage ratio (PCR) has improved from 61 to more than 86 per cent. Legacy NPA today is 1.86 per cent, and it was 5 per cent plus.
• He further commented on bad debt impact for SBI: He informed that SBI’s legacy costs are very minimal. As an example, today, in the corporate book, SBI’S net NPA is Rs 10,500 crore. Just one quarter’s earnings are sufficient to make it zero. The corporate book has no legacy credit cost left. In baseline scenario, not accounting for Covid, it is 1-1.5 per cent of slippages. Considering Covid, he believes in the worst-case scenario this 1.5 per cent can become 2.5-3 per cent. SBI’s exposure to the sectors impacted by Covid-19 is minuscule in relation to the size of the balance sheet.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

• The closing price of SBI was ₹ 193/- as of 17-Aug-2020. It traded at 0.76x/0.7x/0.64x the consensus book value estimate of ₹ 258/279/305 per share for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 265/- implies a PB multiple of 0.86x on FY23E BVPS of ₹ 305/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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27 Jul

Chances of recovery depend on economy – Bank of Maharashtra

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

Following the global indices, markets started the day on a negative note but shrugged off most of losses as Nifty closed the week at 11,194 (-0.2%). Within the index, HCLTECH (+4.7%), RELIANCE (+4.4%) and TECHM (+3.6%) were the largest gainers whereas ZEEL (-4.8%), HINDALCO (-3.5%), and AXISBANK (-3.2%) were the highest losers. Among the sectoral indices, only one index, IT (1.4%) ended the day in green while METAL (-2.1%), PSU BANK (-1.9%) and REALTY (-1.7%) led the losing sectors.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr A S Rajeev, CEO of Bank of Maharashtra with ET now dated 19th July 2020:

  • The impact that the pandemic will have on the economy would be much larger than the global financial crisis of 2008. This has resulted in significant reduction in capex as well as lower discretionary spending. All this is going to impact credit off-take in the near term. 
  • Going forward, as the economy opens up fully post lock down, chances of recovery are very good. The demand has started to pick up, although it is still lower than the pre-Covid levels. At present, the agriculture sector is likely to pick up primarily due to good monsoon expected this year. In other sectors, recovery is likely to pick up from the third quarter onwards
  • 35% of term loan borrowers of the bank have opted for the moratorium. The number is around 20% of the total advances. The bank has kept their provision ratio high at 84% to tackle the bad loans.
  • The bank is well capitalized with the capital adequacy ratio at 13.5% which is reasonably high to grow the assets. The board has created an enabling provision to raise up to Rs 30,000 mn including Rs 20,000 mn through equity when it is required in the next one year. The bank would look at raising capital once present market conditions improve.
  • In order to grow the loan book, the bank is focusing on government undertakings which are generally large ticket sized and “A” and above rated corporates for optimizing risk rewards. Among midsize corporate accounts having ticket size of Rs 500 mn to Rs 1,500 mn,the bank is exploring sunrise sectors such as pharmaceutical industries and FMCG, which are safer bets now.
  • The present promoter holding in the bank is 93.32% after considering capital infusion of Rs 8,310  mn by the government in March. The bank is in touch with authorities to allow some time to achieve minimum public shareholding to 25%. The present deadline will be expiring in August.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Bank of Maharashtra was ₹ 12.4/- as of 24-July-2020.  It traded at 0.6x the consensus book value of ₹ 20.3 for FY20.
  • The consensus price target for Bank of Maharashtra is not available on the stated websites.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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20 Jul

We will be very sensible in our lending – Federal Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY ended up 162 pts (+1.51%) at 10,902. Among the sectoral indices, FIN SERVICE (+1.94%), PSU BANK (+1.84%) and AUTO (+0.73%) were top gainers while IT(-0.62%) was the only loser. Among the stocks, BPCL (+12.43%), ONGC (+5.84%) and INFRATEL (+4.32%) were the top gainers. HINDALCO (-1.90%), BRITANNIA(-1.86%) and NESTLEIND (-1.47%) were the top losers.

 

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Shyam Srinivasan, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, Federal Bank with Economic Times dated 16th July, 2020:

We have grown ahead of the market for the last 14-16 quarters: Shyam Srinivasan

  • Comments on 1QFY21 result: 1QFY21 numbers are quite encouraging. It is quite a balanced outcome. There is no one area that has outdone or given unique benefits but it is spread out between both credit and deposits. Credit grew by 8% YoY. Federal Bank did have businesses like gold loan parts of retail and parts of commercial banking did very well, in particular, gold loan had a remarkably good quarter it grew by 10% QoQ and 36 % YoY. Good credit growth in the higher-margin products and low-cost deposits resulted in 12% income growth YoY. CASA deposit ratio has moved from 30.5% to 32%, So, the 150 bps increase in CASA is driven by sequential growth of 7% in savings. It is an improvement consistent with what the bank has been working on for many quarters and that is why the interest income was at an all-time high of Rs 12,970 mn.
  • Outlook on PCL (provision for credit losses) ratio he said that he would like the coverage ratio including technical written off to be well above 70% and currently it at 75%. Everything depends on how the next 2-3 quarters shape up, given all that is going on in the environment and the challenges that we are all facing. The bank wants to keep coverage portfolio well covered much higher than the likely loss given default. He added that when the bank’s loss given default was in the early 40s, they had a coverage ratio closer to 47-48. When they visualized that the environment is getting stickier and the loss given default might go up, they took the coverage up to almost 59. Depending on how things shape up, Federal Bank will be well provisioned.
  • On the NPA (Non-performing Assets) he stated that we are all part of the same economy so we cannot be totally insulated from all the challenges that globally everybody is facing, given the COVID situation. Federal Bank’s portfolio generally is more secured and a relatively higher credit standard book. For very long, net NPA is at 1.22. In fact, it had a 20 quarter low. This gives confidence that the bank is better placed now to face the likely challenges that may arise over the next six months-nine months. The provisions have been made and will keep increasing the coverage at every available opportunity and post the moratorium liftoff when you can really make sense of how the credit books of everybody is performing, the visible impact will be in September-20 and in the December-20 quarter. He further added that he won’t be able to guess the exact level of deterioration but the bank is ensuring and is in continuous dialogue with customers and expects the deterioration to be manageable.
  • Comments on declining operating profits: The sequential number on operating profit may not reflect the reality because last quarter there was a significant one-off gain on the treasury and the sale of investments was not there in 1QFY21. Rs 9,320 mn of operating profit in 1QFY21 and Rs 9,590 mn in 4QFY20, both are by way of record, the highest the bank has ever done. But Rs 9,590 mn had some larger one-off gains because of the sale of investments which do not repeat itself. In that context, Rs 9,320 mn 1QFY21 is a more sustainable credible consistent number. Operating cost efficiency increase is the productivity drive of the bank. There are many elements of activity going on and that will continue to improve. The Bank is centralizing, standardizing, renegotiating, and deferring a bunch of stuff to maintain the costs.
  • Guidance on NIMs (Net Interest Margin) going forward: In the last three quarters, margins have been moving up sequentially between 4 bps one quarter 3 bps in the next quarter. In the normal course of events, a similar kind of rate of increase could be seen, but we are in a relatively low-interest environment. To that extent, margin expansion does not happen significantly. Second, as credit slippages increase which is likely to happen after the moratorium is lifted off, there certainly will be impairment which will have revenue impact as well. He said that he cannot comment on NIMs but expects to keep the current level of margins which is their top priority and number one effort. For improvement on this, we will have to see how things shape up.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of The Federal Bank was ₹ 52/- as of 17-July-20. It traded at 0.68x/0.62x the consensus BV estimate of ₹ 77/83.4 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 67.8/- implies a PB multiple of 0.81x on FY22E BV of ₹ 83.4/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

 

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17 Jul

Existing book has been taken care of – Yes Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday Nifty closed +1.2% higher at 10.740. Among the sectoral indices, IT (+2.8%), Pharma (+1.7%), and Auto (+1.2%) closed higher. Media (-1.7%) was the only sector to close lower. Infosys (+9.5%), BPCL (+6.9%), and CIPLA (+5.6%) closed on a positive note. Bharti Infratel (-7.0%), TechM (-2.7%), and ITC (-2.4%) were among the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr Prashant Kumar, CEO, Yes Bank with ET dated 14th July2020:

  • His view on the current capital raise: the current CET (common equity Tier 1) is 6.3% and this capital raise will take it to 13% giving a buffer of 500 basis points over the regulatory requirement.
  • This will also take care of the growth requirements for at least two years. Even after two years of growth CET would be around 12% to 13%.
  • On usage of funds: the existing book has already been taken care of and the provision on account of future slippage will be taken care of by the pre-provisioning operating profit. So, this capital will not be used for any provisioning. In the worst-case scenario 100 basis points of capital may be used for provisions mainly due to Covid19.
  • On the loan book post Covid-19: three sectors which have been impacted by coronavirus are hospitality, aviation and real estate. The bank is not seeing any recovery in these three sectors. Except these sectors, recovery is happening. Second, all term loans have been extended by 6 months.
  • He expects things in these sectors to normalize within 2-3 months. The impact on book could be around Rs 10,000 crore, which could be at risk out of total book of Rs 1.71 lakh crore as of March 2020.
  • On the liability side: there has been a net addition in deposits and in the last two months the bank has been able to reduce 100 basis points on saving bank rate and 50 basis points on term deposits, which is a good thing.
  • The targeted CASA ratio is 40% in next three years from 27% in march20.
  • On corporate lending: the bank will not do incremental lending on the corporate side at least during the current financial year, and repayments would reduce the corporate loan book. The bank expects corporate book to come down to 50% from 55% now and further to 40% in FY22.
  • On Return on Assets (RoA) front: RoA is expected to be at 1% by 2023 through improved margins and also lower costs from our branch network, outsourced employees, vendor contracts, lease rentals.
  • He says, rural and semi urban branches will be converted into business correspondent model and some 30 to 35 branches will be merged.
  • On the retail side, the existing book is largely secured. Going forward, the bank will look at secured loans to salaried customers, equipment finance, vehicle finance, gold loans, two-wheeler finance. On MSME, the bank is present in the entire ecosystem of dealer financing but most of it is secured by collateral.
  • Now the challenge is to generate profits. Deposit part has been taken care and the bank is moving towards profit direction. Once capital is there, it would be only to look at growth without having NPAs. The bank’s pre-provisioning profit is improving and when provisioning requirements lessen, there will be a net profit.
  • On technology front, investments have been made. Even today the bank has 40% market share on UPI.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Yes bank was ₹ 19/- as of 16-July-2020.  It traded at 1.5x/ 0.5x the consensus Book value estimate of ₹ 12/32 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus average target price for Yes Bank is ₹ 30/- which implies a PB multiple of 0.9x on FY22E BV of ₹32/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

 

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16 Jul

Financial services sector to witness sharp spike in Non-performing assets – Kotak Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

Markets failed to keep the initial gains as Nifty closed the day 0.1% higher at 10,618. IT sector led the index higher with WIPRO (+16.9%), INFY (+6.5%) and HCL (+5.7%) while the losing stocks for the day RELIANCE (-3.9%), BHARTIARTL (-3.6%) and ZEEL (-2.9%). Among the sectors, IT (5.2%), FMCG (0.7%) and PHARMA (0.6%) while REALTY (-2.1%), MEDIA (-1.7%) and PSU BANK (-1.4%) were the laggards.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Uday Kotak, Managing Director, Kotak Bank Ltd. (Kotak); dated 14th July 2020 from CNBC TV-18:

  • The banks would need to be capitalized to the extent of Rs 2-3 lakh crore. The recent fund raising spree by banks was a step in this direction.
  • The banking sector’s total loan book is about Rs 100 lakh crore. The loan losses to the extent of 4-5 percent of total loans could turn Non-Performing Loans (NPL) due to COVID-19. Against this spike in NPL, he believes that the financial sector will need recapitalization of 2-3 percent of the loan book.
  • The financial sector is going all out to beef-up the reserves to be able to absorb the shocks coming out of the crisis. The key lesson for lenders from the crisis is to tighten their lending practices and make loans after taking risks into account.
  • Commenting on the recent surge in the stock market, he said that the market is ignoring short term issues and valuations are based on future recovery. Lower interest rates and disproportionate liquidity globally and locally are helping the equity market as savers have few avenues to invest in.
  • He also mentioned sectors like airlines, tourism, entertainment, hotels and restaurants had been disproportionately affected due to the issues faced by these industries.
  • He said that if the job situation worsens, unsecured customers will add risk. He will be closely watching for recovery in the most affected sectors and job stability very closely.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing website)

  • The closing price of Kotak Bank was ₹ 1,289/- as of 15-July-2020. It traded at 3.3x/ 2.9x/ 2.7x the consensus BV estimate of ₹ 393/ 442/ 472 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 1,382/- implies a PB multiple of 2.9x on FY23E BV of ₹ 472/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank 0 Comments Read more...
03 Jul

We plan to raise Rs 6,000-8,000 crore in FY21 – Canara Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY closed in the green at 10,552 (+1.2%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were M&M (+6.4%), HEROMOTOCO (+5.2) and TITAN (+3.8%). The top losers were AXISBANK (-1.9%), UPL (-1.0%) and VEDL (-0.9%). Top sectoral gainers were Auto (+2.8%), IT (+2.6%) and Metal (+0.6%) and sectoral losers were Bank (-0.1%) and PSU banks (-0.1%).

Edited Excerpts of an interview with Mr. LV Prabhakar, CEO, Canara Bank Ltd with Financial Express dated 2nd July 2020:

  • They have recovered from written-off accounts about Rs 1,470 crore, which is nearly 13% higher. Apart from that, the CRAR has been maintained at 13.65% and gross NPAs have been brought down by 62 basis points to 8.21%. PCR has increased by 773 bps to 75.86%.
  • This time, sufficient provisioning for all the expected risks has been made. For staff expenses, they have extra provision of about Rs 1,100 crore. NPA provisioning, they have set aside about Rs 11,596 crore for the year and for the quarter, they have made about Rs 5,300 crore.
  • As Syndicate Bank is getting merged with them, they have made Rs 340 crore extra provisioning.
  • In Q1FY21, they declared Dewan Housing Finance as a fraud. They have taken the impact in Q4FY20, which is about Rs 497 crore of extra provisions.
  • They have done extra provisioning because in the Covid scenario, they want to make their balance sheet strong. So wherever possible, they have proactively made provisioning. Simultaneously, they have taken care that CRAR did not get affected.
  • In the first month of Q2, they will have a board meeting, in which they are planning to get an approval for Rs 6,000-8,000 crore of capital. As of now, their capital ratios are adequate.
  • In order to factor in growth and any probable effect (of Covid), they are planning to go for a capital raise. This will be raised in Q3 or Q4 of FY21 in the form of or maybe AT-I (additional tier-I) bonds.
  • There is a risk there because now nobody wants to subscribe to AT-I bonds after some problems with another bank , or they could go for some kind of tier-II issue. In March 2020, they raised Rs 3,000 crore at 7.12% in tier-II category.
  • In terms of the number of borrowers, 19% and in terms of amount, 17% of the borrowers have availed moratorium.
  • Some people have preferred to pay back. In the MSME segment, about 38% of the people have opted for it, whereas in retail it is only 5%. Some of them are housing loans and a few for vehicle loans.
  • Whatever deferment is available is going to be for accounts which have defaulted after March 25. Before that the cases that came can be taken forward.
  • They expect that about Rs 3,700 crore will be recovered from NCLT in FY21. The main account expected (to be resolved) is Bhushan Power and Steel.
  • With Canara Covid support and the 100% government-guaranteed emergency credit line, in the last three months they have already disbursed about Rs 91,600 crore.
  • In FY21, they expect growth ranging around 7-8%. There will definitely be demand from retail for housing and vehicle loans. With all the support that MSMEs, there should be traction there, too.
  • NBFCs always need money because they invest further. As soon as the infrastructure side picks up, there will be demand from corporates as well.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Canara Bank Ltd was ₹ 105/- as of 02-July-2020.  It traded at 0.3x/ 0.3x the consensus book value of ₹ 337 /336 for FY21E/22E respectively.
  • The consensus price target of Canara Bank is ₹ 127/- which trades at 0.4x the book value of ₹ 336/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Bank, Canara Bank 0 Comments Read more...
23 Jun

Expect profit in all quarters of FY21–PNB

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

 

On Monday, Nifty closed higher (+0.7%) at 10,323. Within NIFTY50, BAJAJAUTO (+7.1%), BAJFINANCE (+5.9%), and BAJAJFINSV (+4.8%) were the top gainers, while WIPRO (-1.7%), GAIL (-1.2%) and ONGC (-1.1%) were the top losers. Among the sectoral indices, PSU BANK (+3.9%), METAL (+2.6%), and PHARMA (+2.2%) gained the most.  IT (-0.3%) was the only sector to end in the red.

 

Expect profit in all quarters of FY21–PNB

 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr.S S Mallikarjuna Rao, MD&CEO–Punjab National Bank (PNB)published in Business Standard dated 22ndJune 2020:

  • Management expects credit growth of 6% in FY21E from the earlier estimate of 12%.
  • The credit recovery in MSMEs and retail segments is expected to be faster than other bigger segments. Growth in bigger segments will probably come from January 2021.
  • PNB management expects robust comeback in certain sectors of MSMEs in October. Hospitality and travel segments will be slower to recover but less labor-intensive sectors and highly technology-oriented industries will come back faster.
  • PNB does not see any pain in the hospitality portion of the loan book at the moment. Pain may come from the telecom sector which is in stress. But even in telecom, PNB has non-funded exposure, i.e. bank guarantees are given in favor of government. In PNB’s loan book, they do not see any incremental pain in any sectors apart from those already identified.
  • Mr Rao expects profit in every quarter of FY21. In 1HFY20, PNB might earn Rs 18,000 mn from treasury due to yield advantage. In 1QFY21 itself, PNB has booked Rs 11,000 mn treasury gains compared to normal quarterly run rate of Rs 4,000- 5,000 mn. Provisioning burden will impact the profit, but the backlog of provisions would not continue after September.In 2HFY21E, earning will accrue from lending as operating profit stabilizes.
  • PNB has a high stake of government at 85%. The Government stake has to be brought down in 2 years as the threshold for minimum public shareholding is 25%. So incremental fund raising will be via QIP/ public issue/ LIC/ tier-1 or tier-2 capital.
  • Post amalgamation of PNB with Oriental Bank of Commerce, and United Bank of India, there are a lot of non-core asset in the form of properties that PNB will look to sell. Rs 3,000 – 4,000 mn can be generated through this route in FY21E. PNB does not plan to divest interest in joint ventures and associates, including stake in PNB Housing, as they want to hold onto the brand name and see the entities grow.
  • Post the amalgamation, IRDAI has given exemption to PNB to hold stake in 2 insurance companies. There is no sunset clause for this exemption and PNB will continue to hold share in both the companies.
  • On the progress in amalgamation process, organizational restructuring will be complete from 1st July 2020. Technology integration of surrounding applications and ATMs will be complete by September. Core banking integration for one bank will be done by December 2020, and for the other bank by March 2021.
  • For the amalgamated entity, 500,000 customers are eligible under the emergency credit guarantee scheme and Rs 150 – 160 bn can be disbursed. PNB has already sanctioned loans worth Rs 30 bn to 120,000 customers and the remaining gap can be filled in by first week of July.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screenerand investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of PNB was ₹ 35.8/- as of 22-June-2020. It traded at 0.7x/ 0.4x the consensus BVPS estimate of ₹ 53.6/ 86.6for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 52.7/- implies a PBmultiple of 0.6x on FY22E BVPS of ₹ 86.6.

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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16 Jun

Stake sale in SBI Life done only to meet minimum public shareholding requirements- SBI

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY closed in the red at 9,814 (-1.6%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were GAIL (+3.7%), Wipro (+2.6) and HCLT (+2.5%). The top losers were IndusInd Bank (-7.2%), Axis bank (-4.5%) and Tata Motors (-4.4%). The three sectoral gainers were PSU Banks (+1.4%), Media (+0.9%), and Pharma (+0.1%). The sectoral losers were Pvt bank (-3.8%), Bank (-3.6%) and Realty (-3.0%).

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Dinesh Kumar Khara, MD, SBI with Economic times dated 12th June 2020:

  • Stake sale in SBI Life has not been done just with the intention of shoring up capital with the bank. It is more from the point of view of meeting the minimum public shareholding (MPS) requirement. They are under commitment to offload another 2.1% by the end of September.
  • The current shareholding is 60% and post divestment of another 2.10% will be at 55.50%.
  • As far as the core parameters are concerned, SBI Life Insurance is doing very well. They are focusing on the protection part and that is also doing very well.
  • There is no plan as of now to offload anything more than this in SBI Life for the time being.
  • The insurance sector is still under-penetrated and there is a huge opportunity for a group like SBI to offer the insurance products for a large population across the length and breadth of the country. So they have a huge opportunity.
  • In the ULIP space, for the last couple of years, they have started building up a sharper focus for the protection products and that is doing very well.
  • For the past many years when the ULIP was getting sold since they had a larger component of ULIP on the debt side, they did not have any challenges on the debt side of the ULIP.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of SBI Ltd was ₹ 174/- as of 15-June-2020.  It traded at 0.7x/ 0.6x the consensus book value of ₹ 255 /280 for FY21E/22E respectively.
  • The consensus price target of SBI Ltd is ₹ 272/- which trades at 1.0x the FY22E book value of ₹ 280/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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09 Jun

Bank has started collections in non- containment zones-Bandhan Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, Nifty closed 0.3%higher at 10,167. Among the sectoral indices, IT(+1.8%), PVT Bank (+1.3%), Bank (+0.7%)closed higher, whereas Media (-1.7%), PHARMA (-1.4%) and PSU Bank (-1.2%) closed lower. Among the stocks GAIL (+7.5%), IndusInd Bank (+7.3%),and BPCL (+7.0%) closed on a positive note.ZEEL (-4.5%), ShreeCement (-3.9%) and Eicher Motor (-3.4%) were among the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr.Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, CEO, Bandhan Bankwith Mint dated  8thJune 2020:

  • The pandemic has brought in a whole new set of risks for banks which are both internal and external.
  • The bank is asking its customers to use more digital modes of transaction in the changed scenario.
  • Branches were operational throughout the lockdown by observing government and administration rules.For Bandhan Bank, there were not many people working remotely.
  • He said some things can be done virtually. Earlier all regional managers were mandated to come to the head office for meetings but now the bank is doing it virtually and it is working.These efforts are saving expenses on travel.
  • Every sector cannot work from home and in banking some jobs might be possible but not all.
  • For Bandhan Bank, there is not a greater degree of acceptability to work – from- home.There are a lot of security issues related to bankers working remotely and that includes possible violations of agreements with customers, bound by data-security clauses.
  • The bank will have to take a deeper look into how these risks could be mitigated and only then banks will be able to move towards a work-from-home model.
  • On recoveries, he saidcollections have just started and at the ground level, the borrowers, especially in micro-credit involved in livelihood projects and agriculture, are continuing their businesses. Due to lockdown the bank is not being able to reach them.
  • The bank has started collections in the non-containment zone. However, the problem is that collection executives are facing difficulties in collecting loans from villages, as local residents are not allowing outsiders to access those places, citing covid-19 risks.
  • Speaking about post covid-19 opportunities, he said secured credit is the area where there are big opportunities.
  • There are customers who have been regularly paying all equated monthly installments (EMIs) and are eligible for more funds. These are small businesses which are running despite the lockdown.
  • When the rural demand recovers, pick-up in two-wheelers and other vehicles popularly used in these areas will see demand, and so will bank loans in these segments. Demand for gold loans is also coming quite strong.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Bandhan Bankwas ₹ 264/- as of 8-June-2020.  It traded at 2.4x/ 2.0x theconsensus book value estimate of ₹ 107/127for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus average target price for Bandhan Bank is ₹284/- which implies a PB multiple of 2.2x on FY22E BV of ₹127/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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