LIC Housing

17 Jun

Provisions for slippages will affect short term outlook – LIC Housing Finance

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, markets ended lower with Nifty losing 76 points to close at 15,691. ULTRACEMCO (+1.7%), TCS (+1.6%), and INFY (+1.4%) were the top gainers on the index while ADANIPORTS (-9.0%), INDUSINDBK (-3.0%), and HINDALCO (-3.0%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  METAL (-2.3%),  REALTY (-1.7%), and PSU BANK (-1.4%) were the top losers, while IT (+0.6%) and FMCG (+0.1%) were the only gainers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Y Vishwanath Gawd, MD and CEO of LIC Housing Finance on CNBCTV18 dated 16th June 2021 :

  • Retail stress was the leading cause of slippages in non-performing assets (NPA). Substantial new provisions were needed to be made due to the Supreme Court Order last year, which compelled the company to make provisions in 4QFY21.
  • Project Finance and Developer Loans form just 7% of the loan book, so not much issue of NPAs there as the company has made adequate provisions for the loan book.
  • The One-time restructuring facility was provided last year by the government. Around 1.5-2% of the portfolio was restructured using the same facility, this year the company expects a similar restructuring process to be followed, the only concern will be an expectation of a longer repayment structure.
  • The disbursements grew over 97% YoY however the same was not reflected in the order book growth due to faster and larger repayments, consumers shifting their loans to other companies for better terms and restructuring offers during the pandemic.
  • Substantial reduction in the cost of funds has seen the margins improve to around 2.3-2.4% but the company expects margins to stabilise at these levels due to bottoming out of lending rates.
  • As far as the capital infusion is concerned, the company promoter LIC is investing through preferential allotment of 45.4 mn of equity shares which will further shore up leverage and provided much-needed cash impetus. 
  • The focus in FY22 will be to increase market penetration and further improve all the ratios to deliver better value and post incremental growth in the loan book portfolio.

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • LIC Housing Finance has seen its NPA Provisions bottoming out due to the Supreme Court order. A substantial loan book growth, and improving margins will be the cause of higher growth rates going ahead.
  • As the stress from the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, the affordable housing industry will gather pace which promises better days for the company.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of LIC Housing Finance was ₹480/- as of 17-June-2021.  It traded at 1.03x/ 0.92x the BVPS estimate of ₹ 462/ ₹ 518  for FY22E/23E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 507/- which trades at 0.95x the BVPS estimate for FY23E of ₹ 518/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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04 Jan

Greater demand in real estate – LIC Housing Finance

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday Nifty closed 0.8% higher at 14,133. Among the sectoral indices, IT (+2.7%), Metal (+5.1%), and Auto (+1.6%) closed higher. Pvt Bank (-0.1%) and Bank (-0.04%) were the only sectoral indices that closed lower. Tata Steel (+8.4%), Hindalco (+6.9%), and Eicher Motors (+4.3%) closed on a positive note. Hero Motors (-1.6%), Kotak Bank (-1.2%), and Bajaj Finance (-1.2%) were among the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr. Siddhartha Mohanty, MD & CEO, LIC Housing Finance with CNBC-TV18 dated 1st January 2020:
● The real estate sector faced issues because of lower liquidity and demand.
● Mr. Mohanty said these issues are addressed and now the demand is normal.
● The consumption demand has gone up and there is a pickup in new real estate registration.
● Not only the metros but even tier-2, tier-3 cities are showing high growth.
● He said the company will close in a high double-digit year on year growth by the end of FY21.
● Speaking about bad loans, he said the moratorium ended in August and now people who had opted for the moratorium have also started paying.
● He said there is an improvement in big accounts.
● Speaking on spreads and margins, he said the company is raising debt at a very competitive rate.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
● The closing price of LIC Housing Finance was ₹ 382 as of 04-January-2020. It traded at 8x/ 7x/ 5x the consensus Earnings per share estimate of ₹ 49.8/57.8/71.1 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus average target price for LIC Housing Finance is ₹ 363/- which implies a PE multiple of 5x on FY23E EPS of 71.1/-.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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08 Oct

Expect double-digit growth in 3QFY21E– LIC Housing Finance

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, Nifty closed with 0.7% gains at 11,739. Within NIFTY50, TITAN (+4.5%), BAJAJ-AUTO (+3.6%), and HEROMOTOCO (+2.9%) were the top gainers, while BAJFINANCE (-4.1%), BPCL (-2.8%), and HINDALCO (-2.7%) were the top losing stocks. Among the sectoral indices, AUTO (+1.4%), IT (+0.6%), and PVT BANK (+0.6%) were the top gainers while MEDIA (-2.5%), REALTY (-1.9%), and METAL (-1.5%) were the top losing sectors.

Expect double-digit growth in 3QFY21E– LIC Housing Finance

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Siddhartha Mohanty, MD & CEO, LIC Housing Finance (LICHSGFIN), that aired on CNBCTV18 on 6th October 2020:
● Post the highly impacted months of April and May, LICHSGFIN experienced good growth in disbursements June onward. This growth has been particularly in the affordable segments. However, off late, Mr. Mohanty has also observed some uptick in demand in above mid-segment, as well as premium segment disbursements picked up since June.
● LICHSGFIN has almost reached pre-COVID levels in terms of disbursements owing to good traction in the month of September.
● Despite the inauspicious periods of ‘shraadh’ and ‘adhik maas’ in September, the 2QFY21 has been very good.
● Management expects the positive trend to continue and expect double-digit growth in 3QFY21E. Several factors are into play to motivate home buyers to purchase now. Government has given several incentives including the extension of PMAY CLSS scheme till March 2021, and reduction in stamp duty to 2% up to December 2020 by Maharashtra government. Apart from that, some developers are also giving concessions to attract customers.
● LICHSGFIN has also introduced innovative products to attract customers such as 6 EMI waivers for borrowers who are undertaking immediate purchase/ moving of the house.
● For LICHSGFIN, developer loan book is less than 7% of the total book. Considering sales velocity, within the developer segment, LICHSGFIN focuses more on affordable housing. Even now, LICHSGFIN has been lending to developers but on a very limited basis.
● LICHSGFIN has also seen better than expected collections. A substantial portion of borrowers who were under moratorium have also started paying in September.
● Despite increased competition in home loans, LICHSGFIN has managed to sustain its market share and maintain stable margins.
Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
● The closing price of LICHSGFIN was ₹ 283/- as of 07-October-2020. It traded at 0.7x/ 0.7x/ 0.6x the consensus Book Value per Share estimate of ₹ 386/428/472 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus target price of ₹ 331/- implies a PB multiple of 0.7x on FY23E BVPS of ₹ 472/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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07 May

Less than 15% customers applied for moratorium: Siddhartha Mohanty, LIC Housing

Update on Indian equity market:
Indian markets continued to remain volatile as the Nifty opened lower but managed to close 65 points higher at 9,270. The index traded in a wide range of 9,116-9,346 during market hours. Among the stocks, BAJFINANCE (5.5%), M&M (5.4%) and GAIL (3.9%) led the index higher while INFRATEL (-5.5%), ITC (-5.2%) and COALINDIA (-2.9%) were the laggards. Within the sector indices, FIN SERVICES (2.6%), PVT BANK (2.5%) and BANK (2.2%) were the highest gainers whereas FMCG (-1.9%) and PSU BANK (-0.9%) closed the day lower

Excerpts from an interview with Mr Siddhartha Mohanty, MD & CEO, LIC Housing aired on CNBC
TV18 on 5th May 2020
● He said that RBI has been very supportive as far as liquidity is concerned. The Apex bank has infused sufficient liquidity through TLRTO (Targeted Long Term Repo Operations). The company is in discussion with banks to get that fund at a cheaper rate. This will help the sector as a whole.
● The customer composition of the company is such that regular income group forms more than 76% of the total loan book. Very few people from this segment have applied for a moratorium period.
● The company has received less than 15% of the total clients application for moratorium. Many of them have asked for cancellation of moratorium when they understood that interest payment will have to be made during the moratorium period. It will not affect the cash flow of the company in a big way.
● Cost of Fund for the company is going down. It is difficult to predict the asset quality situation as the moratorium period is currently playing out. The company has launched a new product for those with CIBIL score greater than 800, offering home loans at 7.5%.
● Developer loans consist less than 7% of the total loan book. The book is currently under stress and some developers have asked for a moratorium. This period will help them to equip with the situation and develop some fund flow to repay the loans.
● He expects pick-up in affordable housing sales as the crisis settles down. The demand for luxurious houses will be under pressure for the next few quarters.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing websites) ● The closing price of LIC Housing was Rs 263/- as of 06-May-2020. It traded at 0.7x/ 0.6x the
consensus Book Value estimate of Rs 402/ 454 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively. ● The consensus target price of Rs 395/- implies a PB multiple of 0.9x on the FY22E BV estimate of Rs 454/-
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.

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