IT

14 Jul

With growth, margins will also improve – TCS

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY closed at 10,815 (+0.4%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Tech M (+5.5%), Hindalco (+3.8%), and HCLT (+3.7%). The top losers were Power grid (-2.2%), Bajaj Finance (-2.1%), and HDFC Bank (-1.9%). Top sectoral gainers were IT (+1.7%), METAL (+1.5%), and FMCG (+1.3%) and sectoral losers were REALTY (-1.6%), PSU BANK (-1.6%), and FIN SERVICES (-1.3%).

Excerpts of an interview with V Ramakrishnan, CFO, TCS and Milind Lakkad, CHRO, TCS with ET now dated 10th July 2020:

  • 95% of our people are working from home and only 1% come to work for various reasons. It has been a change for everybody. It hasn’t been an easy cakewalk but they have done very different things.
  • Associate health and well being has been a paramount thing for them and has been a key factor in decision making.
  • They do everything while continuing to take care of associates’ health and ensure that they continue to be a happy organisation.
  • The aspiration of 26-28% margin is very much intact. Of course this pandemic has changed certain dynamics. So, the timing of when they will get back, is dependent on the recovery. They are confident of recovery in the coming quarters.
  • Recovery will be very segment and specific country driven, but they expect that to happen across many of the sectors.
  • Along with growth, obviously the margins will also be improving because in the current quarter, the reduction in the margins is directly related to the contraction in the demand and in the revenue.
  • While they were able to get back almost 300 bps outside of anything to do with employee cost but still they had a dip of about5% that is directly related to the drop in revenue so with improvement in the recovery, they will also see the improvement in margins.
  • The investment is driven by what is required to make sure that they are abreast of what is happening on the technology front to make sure that TCS people are equipped and in terms of what they can showcase to their So the investments have been going on and the balance sheet is strong.
  • They will continue to invest in research and innovation, in building capabilities at scale among the employees and also in labs and customer experience areas.
  • Going forward, they will continue to get all 40,000 offers they made in the campuses in India and that will go through from this mid-July though the year. The engagement with the fresher recruits and everything else is on very actively for the last three months and they will honour all of those offers.
  • They have to be conscious that some of the sectors have been badly affected and there is an expectation from some of the customers and some of the sectors for support. They have been very supportive and we have looked at it in the contextually and depending on the relationship, it is a very mutually beneficial relationship.
  • Their dividend or return policy has been 80% to 100% of free cash flow. So, there is no departure from that policy. In the last couple of years, they have been very close to 100% or even slightly higher. They will stay within that range.
  • Customers’ ability and willingness to adapt to the Work from home model and to be able to connect people from wherever they are. So, the location independence of this model will change the dynamics for everybody.
  • They always thought that the most important meetings have to happen in person and that is not the case anymore. They just come together, discuss and have a chat and then the two CEOs connect in a jiffy. Those are big things that will help establish a deeper relationship with customers going forward.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of TCS was ₹ 2,222/- as of 13-July-2020.  It traded at 27x/ 23x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 82.6/ 95.6 for FY21E/22E respectively.
  • The consensus price target of TCS is ₹ 2,088/- which trades at 22x the earnings estimate for FY22E of ₹6/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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09 Jul

Technology will drive the economic recovery – Tech Mahindra

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY ended down 94 pts (-0.87%) at 10,705.
Among the sectoral indices, METAL(+1.57%), FMCG (+0.84%) and PHARMA (+0.71%) were top gainers while AUTO (-1.95%),REALTY (-1.95%)and IT(-1.72%) were among the top losers.
Among the stocks, INDUSINDBK (+4.5%), VEDL (+2.7%) and JSWSTEEL(+2.31%) were the top gainers. BAJFINANCE(-4.62%), ZEEL(-4.6%) and ASIANPAINT (-3.25%) were the top losers.

Technology will drive the economic recovery: Tech Mahindra CEO
Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. C P Gurnani, Chief Executive Officer, Tech Mahindra with Economic Times dated 7th July, 2020:

Need for digitalisation is on a high and so it is still advantage Indian IT industry.
Manufacturing, travel, logistics, hospitality are some of the sectors re-inventing themselves to be future ready and we are helping our clients to cope with the post Covid world., says CP Gurnani, CEO, Tech Mahindra

• When asked about his views on future of IT companies, he said that most of the Tech M family have remained safe and healthy, the pandemic have impacted few lives and locations. The command and control centre of the company is constantly monitoring the wellbeing of the employees.
• His comments on IT sector’s performance as compared to the month of Mar-20, now that the Pharma, financial and telecom sectors have normalized: He believes that here will be two quarters of stress and if the second wave is not that strong and till the time a vaccine is not discovered, overall global IT spend will come up. Technology will drive the economic recovery and the way consumption is done. So he remains optimistic but at the same time conscious that manufacturing sector, travel, logistics, hospitality are some of the sectors which are re-inventing themselves to be future ready ad Tech M is helping their clients to cope up with the post Covid world.
• When asked about IT budgets and client engagement he informed that they are all seeing increased demand from sectors like telecom, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment and e-education. So that is the positive side. The second positive side is the growth of the digital economy. The need for digitalisation has become equally important for the corner shops or the grocery shops. People now want to participate in the digital economy, even the retail sector. The stress is only for offline, the online retail sector is doing well. So technology and online services are playing a critical role during the lockdown and in a lot of ways, the feeling of optimism is relative and the relative part is where we will continue to see demand.
• When asked about his views on telecom sector and whether it is now going to be the driving vertical because globally spend in telecom and data is only going to intensify, is Tech M in a position to capitalise on it, Where does he see the telecom business moving for Tech Mahindra, he answered that a lot will depend on the next quarter results because all of us understand that the new age technologies like 5G, AI, machine learning, data analytics, Cloud, automation will be the drivers for change in growth for the telecom businesses. How we translate it into revenue will depend upon how these organisations respond to economic development or in certain cases, a little bit of a slowdown in the economy. He also requested to remember that at this stage the stimulus money has kicked in. The US is about 17-18% deficit, India would be about 7-8% deficit. If we follow the money and look at the digital requirements, there is business to be had but a lot depends on how the world responds over the next two quarters.
• When asked about the reason why market is not rewarding Tech M with best PE multiple and lower margins, he stated that the Board has asked for a plan which addresses three parts to what Tech Mahindra will do. Number one is the industry mix. Number two is geography mix. One of the biggest challenges, which is an advantage as well as a disadvantage is that US business is only 45-48%, the rest of the world is 55%. That has effectively meant the energies which have gone into operating in Latin America or operating in Africa could have been better used. Tech M is now working on a plan focusing on: a) geographic reach, b)service offerings and c)some of their big bets like 5G have been relatively slow but he committed to the board that we do understand the challenges. We are going to follow the path of differentiated connected solutions strategy at the same time, we need to do a better job of choosing a few of the geographies particularly where because of the local labour policies, it becomes very difficult to operate profitably. So we are conscious of the need for turnaround or transformation. We are very clear and know the direction, now we need to bring in the speed.
• When asked whether the Covid crisis have pushed the plans forward by 6 or 12 months, he replied that he will attend the financial analysts meet himself in November-20 and would give definitive answers. Till that time, because of the uncertainty called Covid he would want to reserve his comments but the strategy, direction and speed — all three are high on his radar.
• His views on work from home: Today, 93% people are working from home. About 6% to 7% go to work which is also because there are clients in Australia, Philippines, some in the US, who have restrictive and more stringent policies. So till December, the ratios are not going to dramatically change. Most of the clients have accepted that work from home is the reality. The positive outcome to all of this is that most of us are now becoming a lot more conscious about data security, cyber security and making sure that we use and equipment which are part of the Tech Mahindra ecosystem. The last thing you want is risks off too much of distributed processing. So 25% to 30% work from home is a given in the future. People like him would still go to office because some people like to interact with people, to have some cooler talk, go to the canteen and ask people for feedbacks and listen to them. Similarly, he would like to visit his customers. So, he thinks about 25% to 30% at any given point of time will be work from home. About two days in a week, people would like to come back to work. The structured interactions, the whole human machine technology refresh will happen in those two days a week. It is interesting times, but the new normal is here to stay.
• When asked about the cost structure and any chances of cost reduction due to work from home he said that in a lot of ways most of Indian IT companies despite being a $181 bn business had stopped investing a lot on campuses. The reason was that most of the growth was coming which was non-linear growth. Number two, it is also evident that if 25% of the workforce is common for everybody, then we do not need commercial space for a long time.The third part is it is not that the employee cost or the infrastructure cost will come down dramatically. Wewill have to start providing some level of allowances which compensate because people are not spending their time and energy from coming to the workplace. In balance, it is a good thing for the industry. It is a great thing for the gig economy, it is almost a wonderful thing for a flexible workforce and it is a wonderful thing for adoption of AI and machine learning.
• His outlook on India specific business for IT companies as no Indian IT company gets even 10% of the business from India : Most of us are hesitant about India business. Nasscom has been trying to persuade various government departments on the payment terms. Unfortunately, what has happened is that IT buying is almost like they used to buy hardware where the manpower cost was probably 6% or 7%. Today the manpower cost in any IT project is 60% to 70%. So, in payment terms and the way acceptance of the solution is addressed, the Indian government has not adopted itself to the new normal. We have seen it in the last two-three years that the Indian IT spending may have gone up, but the players which are participating, have only got very limited. India Inc has to spend more on IT needs. It has to realize the need for cloud, need for cyber security is very high and at the same time it has to take into account that whether we like it or not, employee payroll has to be delivered every month and you cannot have a situation where an employee works for a project and get paid after a year.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

• The closing price of Tech M was ₹ 582/- as of 08-Jul-20. It traded at 14x/12x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 40.8/50.3 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 647/- implies a PE multiple of 12.9x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 50.8

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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08 Jun

Built-up social capital helped in working in remote areas during the crisis: Infosys

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

Markets shrugged Thursday’s losses as Nifty closed the day 1.1% higher at 10,142. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were Tata Motors (+13.7%), SBIN (+8.7%) and INFRATEL (+8.3%) while the losing stocks for the day TCS (-1.8%), HINDUNILVR (-1.6%) and BAJAJAUTO (-1.4%). The gaining sectors for the day were PSU BANK (+6.9%), MEDIA (+5.3%) and NIFTY BANK (+3.2%). FMCG (-0.7%) was the only losing sector for the day.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Salil Parekh, CEO, Infosys Ltd; dated 4th June 2020 from Economic Times:

  • Over the past few years, Infosys has invested in technology infrastructure, remote access and telecommunications. As a result, the Company was able to scale up work from home with ease and security. They currently employ 240,000 people of which 90% have migrated and are working from home.
  • The infrastructure for working from remote places was already in place for Infosys. The Company simply had to scale it up and make it effective.
  • About the future of the work environment, he mentioned that people are underestimating the value of building social capital by working together. He explained that remote working has worked for the Company because of the social capital that they built over the years of working together. His sense is that working from home shall continue till we achieve medical milestones in therapeutics and vaccines post which we should look at rebuilding and expanding social capital because that is the glue which has helped to put all of this together.
  • The Company has not yet finalized on the target model for working culture. There are tremendous benefits to work from home or remote working. It creates a lot of flexibility for many employees. The way is to build a model once we are out of this crisis.
  • The IT industry will look at the most effective ways of cutting costs like travel expenses, and onsite expenses. There will be some efficiencies in adopting this model but it is too early to quantify how much per cent will be saved on a permanent basis.
  • He emphasized on the fact that hiring is still an important part of the IT industry. The industry is witnessing technology demand in the digital cloud areas.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Infosys Ltd was ₹ 707/- as of 05-June-2020. It traded at 18.9x/ 16.7x/ 15.2x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹3/ 42.3/ 46.3 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 725/- implies a PE multiple of 17x on FY22E EPS of ₹3/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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11 May

Covid-19 will push a lot more customers to look at outsourcing: C Vijayakumar, HCL Technologies Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY ended up 53 pts (+0.57%) at 9251 level.

Among the sectoral indices, PHARMA (2.13%), FMCG (1.9%) and IT (0.83%) were among the top gainers while PSU BANK (-1.9%), AUTO (-1.29%) and PVT BANK (-0.7%) were the losers. HINDUNILVR (4.3%), SUNPHARMA (+3.9%) and DRREDDY (+3.7%) were the top gainers. NTPC (-3.7%), M&M (-3.7%) and AXISBANK (-3.6%) were the top losers.

 

Covid-19 will push a lot more customers to look at outsourcing: C Vijayakumar, HCL Technologies Chief Executive Officer (CEO)

 

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr C Vijayakumar, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of HCL Technologies:

 

  • Digital transformations at global companies, expected over the next two to three years, will now hasten in crisis-mode due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr Vijayakumar said sectors or companies that were not looking at outsourcing will do so now to save costs.

 

  • When asked between the United States and Europe, where does he expect growth to pick up, he said that the US and Europe are not going to be very different, because in Europe, some geographies are already opening up. Around 23 states in the US have also already relaxed some guidelines and there is some hope that things will stabilize quickly, but customer behavior may not change immediately.
  • His views on traditional and digital services in coming fiscal years: Traditional services also have some very strong propositions, like digital workplace, engineering services. Some of the demand is intact and it is only getting accelerated. So, barring the short-term challenge, HCL Technologies will have good growth momentum. Mr. Vijaykumar thinks there could be a hit in the first quarter for sure. Industrial, auto, and aero have been impacted significantly, and non-grocery retail is also quite seriously impacted. But, almost 12% of revenue comes from Life Sciences and close to 20% of revenue comes from tech services. Both are strong verticals.
  • When asked about the kind of projects and wins expected after the recovery, he replied that Digital spends will (only) accelerate. Whatever transformation was expected to happen over the next two to three years, it’s almost going to get done in crisis mode, because for all the businesses, digital is the most viable channel to engage. He sees acceleration in cloud adoption, digital transformation, spend on digital workplace and cybersecurity. He believes the hospitals of the future will only have operation theatres and ICUs, everything else will be done through telemedicine.
  • He further informed that since work from home has been implemented, the productivity is much higher. They have tools to track productivity of every individual. Currently, there is a lockdown so obviously everybody is glued on to work, but how a large-scale work from home stacks up in a non-lockdown scenario needs to be seen in future.
  • He stated that HCL Technologies is very open to look into the opportunities to acquire companies, products, platforms or capabilities if there are attractive assets available. They have not only been acquisitive, but have made the acquisitions work.

 

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener)

  • The closing price of HCL Technologies was ₹ 519/- as of 8–May-20. It traded at 13x/ 11.5x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 40.2/45.1 for FY20E/ FY21E respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 580/- implies a PE multiple of 13x on FY21E EPS of ₹ 45.1/-

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

 

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28 Apr

Current situation not comparable with 2008 financial crisis- Mr Salil Parekh

Excerpts from an interview of Mr.Salil Parekh,CEO, Infosys with ET Now on 27th April 2020:

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday Nifty closed 1.4% higher at 9,282. Among the sectoral indices PVT bank (3.0%), IT(2.4%), FIN Services (2.1%) closed higher. None of the sectors close negatively. Britannia (+7.0%), Indusind Bank (+6.6%) and Bajaj Finserv (+6.2%)closed on a positive note. NTPC (-1.1%), HDFC Bank (-0.9%) and M&M (-0.8%) were among the top losers.

  • The company doesn’t see any clients in this situation to go bankrupt as there is tremendous amount of fiscal support in the US market.
  • There will be some near-term challenges as there are some requests for price cuts and credit extensions. Due to this reason the company has suspended revenue guidance.
  • The US government’s massive $2-trillion stimulus is expected to provide liquidity to companies, including banking and financial services that are the biggest outsourcers of IT.
  • Infosys gets 31% of its revenue from banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI). Infosys admitted in its recent earnings call that the vertical would be impacted negatively due to lower interest rates, deferred loan payments and low premiums.
  • While comparing the current situation with 2008 global financial crisis, he said the current situation has affected everyone every geography, every sector at the same time and in a way nothing from recent experience is equivalent with current situation.
  • Speaking on whether clients would look to reduce their dependence on India, particularly for BPM, given the disruptions in these operations because of lockdowns, he said even if there is any impact it will be on the smaller players.
  • On-shore 98% of employees are working from home and In India it is 93%, including BPM. Due to the strength which the company has demonstrated many large clients are going to focus on Infosys and some of the smaller players will lose out on that.
  • Clients are seeing Infosys as a stable partner with a very strong financial position and with $3.6 billion in cash reserve the company in a stable position.
  • He said the company is having discussions with clients on vendor consolidation, on how they want to look at some captives, a lot of discussions in the cloud, movement on virtualization, workforce transformation.
  • Speaking about the whistleblower allegations made against the company in October 2019, he said the company is extremely transparent and the management is committed to keep focus on clients, shareholders and employees.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Infosys was ₹ 665/- as of 27-April-2020.  It traded at 17.7 x/ 15.6x/ 14.3x the consensus earnings per share estimate of ₹ 37.4/42.6/46.3 for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus average target price forInfosys is ₹ 725/- which implies a PE multiple of 15.6x on FY22E EPS of ₹46.3/-.

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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21 Apr

Post pandemic, recovery to be V-shaped – Mr N Ganapathy Subramaniam, COO – TCS

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

 

On Monday, Nifty closed unchangedat 9,262. Within NIFTY50, TATAMOTORS (+4.2%), SUNPHARMA (+3.9%) and HDFCBANK (+3.6%) were the top gainers, while HINDALCO (-5.6%), JSWSTEEL (-5.6%) and AXISBANK (-5.4%) were the top losers. Among the sectoral indices,PSU BANK (+4.2%), IT (+1.6%) and REALTY (+0.6%) gained the most. METAL (-3.3%), FMCG (-2.1%) and AUTO (-1.4%) were the top losers.

 

Post pandemic, recovery to be V-shaped – Mr N Ganapathy Subramaniam, COO – TCS

 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr N Ganapathy Subramaniam, COO- TCS published in Business Standard dated 20th April 2020:

  • Back in December, TCS dealt quickly in China. That led to none of their employees getting affected by covid-19.
  • TCS has formed a committee that meets every day and coordinates operations globally. More than 90% of the workforce is working from home (WFH). As long as the work is getting done, TCS is not in a hurry to get employees back in the office space.
  • In March, 2/3rd of the business impact was due to supply side issues. This was due to employees having to WFH and approvals had to be obtained from clients for the same.
  • In 1QFY21E, 80% of the business impact will come from demand side. There are various discussions happening with clients. Some clients are asking how TCS can help them in their business in current stressed situation, some clients are asking for pricing discounts, while some are asking to halt projects. On the other hand there are also situations where clients are asking to accelerate projects and finish ahead of time. TCS has also got certain additional work from clients where their other vendors could not do it, and also in cases to help moving operations to WFH.
  • TCS has seen some suspension of projects in certain pockets, but there have been no cancellations.
  • It is difficult to assess the current situation. But when the pandemic is contained and economic activity resumes, all sectors will rebound simultaneously. Once the pandemic is over, the recovery will be swift and V-shaped. Given the deal pipeline and demand scenario, management is optimistic of reaching the 3QFY20 revenue level of ₹ 390 bn in 3QFY21E.
  • TCS has various levers that it will implement to undertake cost optimization. First and the biggest available lever is how a project can be executed within budget and time. Second is reduction in employee costs on account of no salary hikes and reduction in travel costs due to WFH. Third, marketing costs will come down with more digital marketing. The other cost efficiencies can be achieved by controlling utility costs and contracting costs.
  • TCS is open to look at M&A opportunities in these times as according to the management, these are good times to buy. TCS had its biggest acquisition (captive BPO of Citigroup) during the Global financial crisis.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of TCS was ₹ 1,819/- as of 20-April- It traded at 20.9x/ 21.3x/ 19.1x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 86.9/ 85.5/ 95.4 for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 1,829/- implies a PE multiple of 19.2x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 95.4.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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07 Apr

IT industry adopting new methods to tackle the crisis: C P Gurnani Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD) of Tech Mahindra

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY ended up 170 pts down (-2.06%) at below 8,100 level as ratings downgrade for the banking sector, due to the impact of the crisis and ensuing stressed asset concerns, impacted the financial stocks.

Among the sectoral indices, PHARMA (4.8%), and FMCG (0.7%) were the only gainers while PVT BANK (-5.5%), BANK (-5.3%) and FIN SERVICE (-4.3%) were the top losers. SUNPHARMA (+9.6%), CIPLA (+8.3%) and ITC (+6.7%) were the top gainers. AXISBANK (-8.9%), INDUSINDBANK (-8.3%) and ICICIBANK (-7.4%) were the top losers.

IT industry adopting new methods to tackle the crisis: C P Gurnani

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD) of Tech Mahindra

India has spent only 0.3 per cent (of the GDP) and the World Bank has suggested the countries to spend up to 6-7 per cent said Mr Gurnani.

The world is heading towards a ‘new normal’ due to the current crisis, by almost forcing businesses to work from home, the IT industry has learnt a lot from this event.

Edited excerpts of an interview C P Gurnani, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD) of Tech Mahindra; dated 31st March 2020:

His views on the current crisis and its impact on IT industry – He is of the opinion that India has been very lucky. Even today, only ~ 1,100 cases though it’s true that India’s testing infrastructure is not as strong as the US. Everyone is also praying that with rising temperature, the propagation of the virus will be reduced. So, he is not expecting further lockdown but probably a new normal will be kicked in. The new normal is, people will keep safe distance and they will be a lot more hygienic than ever before.

When asked what the industry as a whole has learnt, he divided this into three chapters. The first one is the period ‘before the crisis’, second is ‘during the crisis’ and third is ‘after the crisis’. He said that everyone knew that they have to become healthy, but had been ignoring it. Everyone knew that they have to reduce pollution. During the pandemic, many things have become reality. It was an opportunity for Tech Mahindra and others to take those decisions, which were never taken before. Tech M have now introduced many collaborative tools and launched workstation as a service, remote diagnostics networks, content delivery platforms and omni-channel retail experiences and so on. Many of these platforms were ready but were not launched yet, but now it is becoming a reality.

When asked about the challenges in the ‘post crisis’ environment he stated that the reality is the government agencies have now officially declared recession. India has spent only 0.3 per cent (of the GDP) and the World Bank has suggested the countries to spend up to 6-7 per cent. He thinks there is headroom to kick-start the economy. Consumers’ confidence comes back very fast. Infrastructure spending will increase the cash flow. Though the B2B businesses will take little longer (to come back to shape), he thinks the doomsayers are being very negative. It is less than a year cycle of recovery.

His comments on hospitality, travel and aviation sector: Hospitality sector is not a big one for Tech M as it contributes less than 3 per cent of the total revenue. Travel and hospitality have also seen these challenges in the past. Besides, this sector has always been the first one to get impacted. But the sector also bounces back.

When asked about the benefit to Tech M from the Telecom Vertical as the company has a good exposure to this sector, he said that he is not denying it but everyone is in crisis. Keeping the human capital intact and lights on are important themes.

He was asked about the sales team performance, whether they are still chasing for deals on ground or stopped. He replied that everyone is talking to everybody. No conversation has stopped. In fact, the number has increased. However, we need to remember that the sales team are not talking to organizations, but only to individuals. Clients are not having their board meetings or committee meeting now. Everyone is on a fire-fighting mode. Overall, he is proud of the associates for the way they have rallied. Offices in the Philippines and India are not working, but none of Tech M’s customers has been impacted.

He also added that almost 90 per cent or their employees are working from home. The remaining go to office because of the data security norms. So, the density is less than 6 per cent in the offices. Work from home has actually helped in enhancing the overall productivity. They are using various tools to measure the productivity.

His views on laying off staff to withstand the business losses in IT industry: Each company has its own strategy. What Tech M have conveyed to their people is that the company would rather offer advances to their employees who earn less than ₹ 35,000 per month. They will offer this to temporary or even sub-contract workers, as Tech M understands they require their support a lot more.

With regards to buy back, he said that looking at the current scenario he feels it will be unfair at this point to take advantage and he won’t recommend it to the board.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

The closing price of Tech M was ₹ 524/- as of 3-April-20. It traded at 10.4x/ 9.6x/ 8.6x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 49/ 53/ 59 for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E respectively.

Consensus target price of ₹ 793/- implies a PE multiple of 13.4x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 59/-

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22 Jan

BFSI and retail will drive growth in the medium and long term: TCS

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

The markets continued the downward trajectory on Tuesday with the Nifty falling 55 points to close at 12,170. Monday’s fall was on the back of a combination of selling pressure from the DII and muted participation by FIIs. Within the index, some of the stock movements were a reaction to the quarterly results declared by the company. Within the sectoral indices, only Media (2.2%) closed the day in green while REALTY (-1.5%), AUTO (-1.4%) and METAL (-1.4%) led the laggards. Within the index stocks, INFRATEL (8.6%), ZEEL (4.5%) and BPCL (1.4%) were the top gainers whereas TATASTEEL (-3.3%), M&M (-2.9%) and TATAMOTORS (-2.4%) were the top stocks that ended in the negative.

Excerpts from an interview with Mr Rajesh Gopinathan, CEO – TCS. The interview aired on CNBC-TV18 on 20th January 2020.

  • TCS declared 3QFY20 results with a YoY increase of 0.2% in consolidated net profit at ₹ 81,180 mn. In this interview, he discussed the third quarter performance and the outlook in detail.
  • He is hopeful of sustaining margins at around 25 percent going forward on back of their strong delivery model. The company has been investing continuously in the organic talent building capability and over time, the investment into the group of 5-12 year old people has been significant. This has been going for on for last five- six years. He believes that the pool is now very strong and there is an opportunity to expand the base.
  • The company is aspiring to achieve margins of 26%. To achieve the target, the combination of operational elements and the currency needs to be supportive. Both the things came together in the 3QFY20. The currency will remain volatile. However, he believes that the way things are moving, probably that will also be supportive of the medium-term.
  • He said that the medium to long term growth trends will be based on BFSI and retail because the rest of the verticals are firing all cylinders. They are all well into the double digit space. In BFSI & retail, the company is observing very diverse performance across geographies and sub-segments. The weakness can be isolated down to the large banks and the large retailers in US and UK. The company is not losing wallet share in these geographies but it is the sub-segment that forms large part of the base business.
  • In terms of addition to headcount, he said that it is 23,500 this year, same as last year. The hiring was front-loaded during the current year.
  • In the retail space, more traditional retailers seem to be finding their groove. In the US, the players like Best Buy and Walmart are doing significantly better and standing up to the pure online players very well. He believes that the company will revert back to double digit growth in the retail segment.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of TCS ₹ 2,170/- as of 21-January-2020. It traded at 25x / 23x / 21x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E of ₹ 88.0/ 96.1/ 104.0 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of TCS ₹ 2,108/- implies a PE multiple of 20x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 104.0.
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23 Oct

L&T Infotech: Aims to achieve double-digit growth in FY20E

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed 0.6% lower at 11,590 points; reversing the trend of the last 6 sessions. The whistle-blower complaint against Infosys was the talk of the day which dragged the markets down. Amongst the NIFTY 50 Stocks, DRREDDY (+3.5%) and ICICIBANK (+3.2%) were the top gainers while INFY (-16.7%), TATAMOTORS (-4.0%) with other banks dragged the NIFTY down. In the sector-wise performances, Pharma (+2.0%) and Financial Services (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers while IT (-4.8%) was the biggest loser for the day.

L&T Infotech: Aims to achieve double-digit growth in FY20E

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Sanjay Jalona, MD & CEO L&T Infotech; dated 18th October 2019 on CNBC TV 18:

  • The old announced large deals are ramping up well. L&T Infotech (LTI) announced 3 more large deals in 2QFY20. LTI is confident of achieving a double-digit growth rate for FY20 despite a struggle in 1Q and 2Q of FY20.
  • There was a ~50 bps reduction in EBIT in 2QFY20. The wage hike for the LTI is effective in July. So, the entire hit comes in 2Q financials. The impact was ~160 bps in 2QFY20. The cost savings in visa expenses and other operational optimizations provided support of ~110 bps. The net margins were 13%, lower by ~30bps YoY.
  • LTI maintains the PAT margin guidance of ~14-15% for FY20E.
  • In the Banking & Financial Sector (BFS) sector, top clients saw budget cuts. LTI expects to see a recovery in 3QFY20.
  • In the BFS segment, LTI executed a deal of separation of a bank from a larger bank in FY19. It was a one-off assignment which provided the ~US $ 30-40 mn incremental revenue to LTI. The separation was completed successfully. But as this was a non-recurring one-off contract. This deal leads to a high base effect. Apart from that, in BFS; LTI is focussing on client-specific problems.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrade of the Global economic growth outlook from 3.8% to 3%; will lead to some nervousness in the industry. LTI continues to see the excitement and a pipeline in deals but the nervousness persists. LTI is not seeing any delays in projects.
  • Management expects the digital technology to drive change for the customer. Management is looking forward to stronger 2HFY20 and is very positive on FY21 as well. 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of LTI was ₹ 1,611/- as of 22-October-19. It traded at 19x/16x/14x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 86/ 100/ 112 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 1,808/- implies a PE multiple of 16x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 112 /-
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22 Oct

Wipro: 3rd quarter will be better than both quarter 1 and 2

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, Equity market traded higher for 6th straight session as the Nifty moved 0.7% higher to close at 11,661. This market movement is correlated with the incoming flows from the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian equities. The FIIs have turned net buyers into the markets for the past five days. Among the sectors, all but one sector was in red i.e. the Media (-1.0%). All other sectors traded higher with Realty (1.9%), Metals (1.9%) and PSU banks (1.5%) led the gains. Within the stocks, Yes Bank (8.2%), Coal India (3.3%) and Adani Ports (3.2%) led the gains whereas Zee (-5.6%), Tata Motors (-2.1%) and Cipla (-1.4%) dragged the index lower.

3rd quarter will be better than both quarter 1 and 2: Wipro

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Abidali Neemuchwala, MD & CEO, Mr Jatin Dalal, CFO, Mr Bhanu Murthy, President & COO, and Mr Saurabh Govil, President & Chief Human Resources Officer, Wipro Ltd. (Wipro): dated 16th October 2019 with ETNOW:

  • Mr Neemuchwala mentioned that the guidance given to its investors during the September result reflect the optimism of the company that 3rd quarter will be better than both the 1st and 2nd quarters.
  • The trade agreements impacted industries that have big global supply chains like manufacturing, auto industry, etc. While the pipeline for the company looks good, in the first quarter, the company had secured a couple of large deal wins but the clients did they did not get signed. The customers told the company that the company has won the deal but it took three months to sign it in 2nd quarter. This is the reason the company is confident about the 3rd quarter.
  • Talking about the margins, Mr Dalal said that he does not have particular range for operating margins for the company. He mentioned that the company has remained resilient and focussed on delivering a good outcome on margins every quarter over the last six quarters. The company will remain focussed on that going forward too.
  • Mr Murthy said that all the business units delivered positive year on year growth for company. Three of them delivered better than the Wipro average growth rates. On the Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) side, the company has heavily invested in the digital transformation of the BFSI customers. There is an uncertainty overhang there right now.
  • According to Mr Dalal, the attrition story has played out over the past few quarters and it has been well thought through thing of investing on employees. As a result, currently there is some traction in terms of investments in salaries, bonuses, rolls, hiring and the various things that the company has done across the globe. All that has now resulted in seeing that workforce, especially the junior workforce, being much more engaged and that is what is delivering results for the company.
  • About the sub-contracting expenses, Mr Dalal mentioned that the expenses have come down but he called it as the first step towards being more self-reliant on supply chain. According to him, sometimes it is more pragmatic to use subcontracting to capture demand and then subsequently build it through its own supply chain. The company will remain very practical and pragmatic around the way it uses subcontractors all over the world.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Wipro was ₹ 249/- as of 18-October-19. It traded at 15x/ 14x/ 13x the consensus EPS for FY 20E/ FY 21E/ FY 22E of ₹ 16.7/ 17.5/ 18.6 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 252/- implies a PE multiple of 14x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 18.6/-.
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