Tag - Consumer products

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12 Jan

Demand momentum robust, seen steady growth in the order book – Blue Star


 

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed in the green at 18,212 (+0.9%). Among the sectoral indices, REALTY (+1.9%), OIL & GAS (+1.5%), and AUTO (+1.5%), closed higher while  PHARMA (-0.2%)  and HEALTHCARE (-0.2%) closed in the red. M&M (+4.5%), BHARTIARTL (+3.7%), and INDUSINDBK (+2.8%) were the top gainers. TITAN (-1.6%), TATASTEEL (-1.5%), and SHREECEM (-1.1%) were among the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr. B Thiagarajan, MD, Blue Star with Economic Times dated 6th January 2022:

  • Right from August onwards, the company has had a good festival season, the demand held up till the New Year sale in quite a few markets. Building up to Sankranti, the sales are good, however, the spike in COVID cases can have some impact on the retail movement, and the company doesn’t expect much loss of sales as it is peak winter season.
  • The company had taken 3 price hikes in CY21 and it has no plans of further price hikes on the back of stabilising commodity prices, improved product portfolio, and efficient supply chain. The company expects commodity prices to be stable over the summer season.
  • The company has improved its supply chain efficiency with regards to insulating itself from shocks by ordering semiconductors till FY23 in advance, blocking raw material inventory for 6 months instead of its usual policy of 3 months. The supply chain challenges continue but it has somewhat eased and the company is fully secured for the summer season.
  • The company has seen robust demand in the room air conditioner industry owing to excellent momentum from tier-3, tier-4, and tier-5 towns. The penetration in the middle class is fast improving.
  • PLI has become an important enabler to create a huge component ecosystem. To earn the PLI, the industry has to improve its revenue which means the competition will be intense and prices will come down while the scale builds up. It is a question of maintaining profitability by building scale.
  • IT, ITES workforce are returning to offices and therefore air conditioning demand is coming. The biggest demand is from the manufacturing sector. Huge expansions are taking place thanks to the PLI in various sectors the government has offered. Capacity expansion is leading to new factories coming up, thus the company expects a huge demand for industrial cooling.
  • There are many social infrastructure projects like the metro railways or water-related projects and the resulting order book is at a record high at this point. It is very encouraging as far as the B2B segment is concerned and the cash flow is also good indicating encouraging signs for the segment.
  • Once in two years, energy labels are getting changed and therefore people will have to buy higher energy efficiency products. But the demand for five-star ACs is not going up significantly because the consumers are predominately first-time, middle-class buyers, who are more price-driven.
  • However in the B2B segment, the real hot selling products are highly energy-efficient like VRB (Vanadium redox battery) or the VFD (Variable Frequency Drive) driven, as manufacturers are more focused on setting up green buildings, platinum rated, and gold rated factories.

Asset Multiplier comments:

  • We think the healthy order book, expansion of business in the B2C segment, and PLI Investments will be the key positives for Bluestar but the supply chain and increased commodity prices may impact profitability.
  • Healthy growth opportunities in Industrial Manufacturing induced Capex and the government’s boost for social infrastructure will drive growth for Bluestar.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: Market screener website)

  • The closing price of Bluestar was ₹ 1,006/- as of 12-January-2022.  It traded at 60x/37x/30x the consensus Earnings per share estimate of ₹ 17/27/33/- for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus average target price is ₹ 1,025/- which implies a PE multiple of 31x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 33/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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08 Sep

Recovery on cards, high volume growth ahead – Marico

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended flat with Nifty closing 9 points lower at 17,354. KOTAKBANK (+3.6%), POWERGRID (+1.8%), and GRASIM (+1.6%) were the top gainers on the index while DIVISLAB (-2.4%), NESTLEIND (-2.4%), and WIPRO (-1.7%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices, BANK (+0.8%), PRIVATE BANK (+0.7%), and CONSUMER DURABLES (+0.7%) were the top gainers, while IT (-0.8%), MEDIA (-0.6%), and AUTO (-0.5%) were the laggards.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Saugata Gupta, MD, and CEO at Marico on CNBCTV18, dated 07th September 2021:

  • Marico’s portfolio is concentrated on items of daily use, which saw a faster recovery in June itself. The entire FMCG sector is witnessing volume recovery due to its inherent nature and the company expects 8-10% volume growth for H2FY22. 
  • The company expects a muted 3rd wave if it occurs on the back of rapid vaccinations and an adequate monsoon which will help demand to improve significantly.
  • The only issue that the company expects to face is rising inflation in its input costs. However, the company believes this won’t persist beyond Q3FY22 and that it will see an eventual softening in raw material prices.
  • The company expects that it’ll meet its revenue targets of Rs. 4.5-5 bn in FY22 and double them to Rs. 8.5-10 bn by FY24 on the back of strong growth drivers like diversification and premiumisation. 
  • The company is on track to meet its diversification targets, with the discretionary food segment demonstrating robust recovery. Now the company plans to focus on premiumisation in Personal Care and digital brand growth.
  • Digital Brands are an important segment for the company. Its recent acquisition of Beardo Brand is now fully integrated, and the company plans to expand into a couple of more digital brands either organically or inorganically.
  • The worst margin pressure for the company is over as Copra prices (a key raw material for the company) have settled down. The company expects vegetable and other oil prices to cool off towards Q3FY22 and EBITDA margins to reach a comfortable 19-20% level.

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • The food and FMCG Industry has adapted to the pandemic imposed changes. Despite the pandemic, the volumes have improved and may recover sharply soon with further unlocking. With an expanding product portfolio, the growth rates may be significantly higher.
  • Marico has an established portfolio, brand awareness with consumers, and a focus-induced approach to premiumisation which it can leverage to expand volumes to grow further and deliver value to shareholders.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Marico was ₹563/- as of 08-September-2021.  It traded at 56x/47x/40x the EPS estimates of ₹10/ 12/ 14  for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 600/- which trades at 43x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 14/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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05 Nov

Covid tailwinds led to a 50% growth in Healthcare – Dabur India

Update on the Indian Equity market:
Amid the uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential election outcome, Indian markets remained volatile on Wednesday. The Nifty50 ended marginally higher at 11,909 (+0.8%). Among the stocks, INDUSINDBK (+4.9%), SUNPHARMA (+3.7%), and DIVISLAB (+3.6%) ended the day higher. UPL (-3.9%), AXISBANK (-2.6%), and HDFC (-2.2%) led the losers. Among the sectoral indices, PHARMA (+2.2%), IT (+1.8%), and AUTO (+0.7%) led the gainers. REALTY (-1.9%), METAL (-0.3%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES 25/50 (-0.1%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview of Mr. Mohit Malhotra, CEO, Dabur India published in Mint on 4th November 2020:
• Dabur India recently reported 2QFY21 numbers with ~17% domestic volume growth compared to a year ago. There has been an all-around recovery- economy, rural, urban opening up, modern trade opening up, and e-commerce.
• Healthcare got a tailwind and continues to do well; home and the personal care portfolio have seen a sequential recovery in all the sub-categories.
• Healthcare has grown by 50%, out of which health supplements grew by 70%. That is the one that has driven growth.
• Consumption is very muted and the whole mindset is about saving and not splurging. That is why most discretionary products have not yet picked up. In-home consumption continues and this will sustain over a period of time.
• This quarter, the contribution of new products was ~5-6%. The new product launches are not just in categories but also specific to channels, such as e-commerce first products. Dabur is also trying to get into adjunct categories around its power brands, so it is both line and brand extensions. These new launches have also helped drive growth in revenue.
• Covid-19 has been an inflection point for Dabur. There are some fundamental changes being made, in both go-to-market and the way they look at categories, and capitalizing on the opportunities. Capitalizing on e-commerce will help connect with the millennials and urban consumers while strengthening the rural distribution will help resonate with the rural consumer.
• The casual labor force suffered the most due to the outbreak of the virus and they were the ones who went back. Since that labor didn’t come back, there was some hiring from the remote parts of Jharkhand and some other states. Initially, there was some productivity fall and now, post-training, they are at 100% of pre-covid levels.
• The rural growing significantly ahead of urban is expected to continue for a while.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
• The closing price of Dabur India was ₹ 519/- as of 04-November-2020. It traded at 55x/ 48x/ 42x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 9.5/ 10.9/ 12.4 per share for FY21E/FY22E/FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 544 implies a PE multiple of 44x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 12.4/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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16 Mar

Rural India has felt more of a squeeze from the slowdown, says Adi Godrej, chairman, Godrej Group

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY ended up 433 pts up (+4.5%) at above 10,023 level. It was an eventful and highly volatile session with significant gains after posting a record intra-day recovery. The Nifty50 index was locked in 10 per cent lower circuit early morning, prompting a halt in trading for 45 minutes. However, once the markets re-opened, the headline indices Sensex and Nifty shot up as much as 5,381 points and 1,604 points, respectively, from their early morning lows. The volatility index surged over 24 per cent during the session.

PSU Bank (+11.7%), Financial Services (+6.2%), and Metal (+6.5%) were the top performing sectors. Media (-0.6%) was the only loser for the day.

Among stocks, SBI (+14.9%), TATA Steel (+14.5%), and HDFC (+10.5%), were the top gainers. UPL (-7.2%) ZEEL (-4.2%) and NESTLE IND (-3.7%) were the top losers.

Rural India has felt more of a squeeze from the slowdown, says Adi Godrej, chairman, Godrej Group

While the discretionary spend in rural areas has not risen as per expectations, FY21 is likely to deliver better numbers than the ongoing fiscal, says Adi Godrej, Chairman of the Godrej Group.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Adi Godrej, Chairman of the Godrej Group; dated 13th March 2020:

When asked about his views on GST implementation he said that the implementation of GST has been good for the economy and it would not be correct to attribute the decline in GDP growth to the new tax regime. There are other factors like the China and US trade war or the killing of an Iranian general by the Americans that might have impacted the economy; we can’t be sure. So, it’s a combination of geopolitical and other factors that have affected GDP growth. He also added that there is no doubt that the economy has slowed down, but it will recover, if only slowly and expects FY21 to be better than FY20.
He commented that for FMCG products, the slowdown has been more pronounced in the rural areas, though rural growth was ahead earlier. The rural economy has been impacted by the slowdown in production and an irregular monsoon. Also, the discretionary spend of the rural population has not grown as per expectations. He expects to fare better in FY21, though a lot would depend on government policy going forward.
When asked about his suggestion on steps that should be taken by government to boost overall consumption, he suggested that there might be no tax on agriculture, but animal husbandry is taxed fully, bringing under the net income from poultry, dairy, fisheries, etc. which affects rural growth.
He informed that Godrej Agrovet was affected but it managed to recover from the lows and the business is expected to grow provided the government accepts the suggestion of treating animal husbandry on a par with agriculture.
He stated that Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) performed better in 3QFY20. The international businesses have been performing well as the economies there have done well, especially Indonesia, which is a large market for GCPL. The hair care business is rated number one in Africa; new products are being introduced in the haircare and repellant segments, besides those to prevent dengue and malaria.
When asked about the real estate business performance and company’s focus on residential or the commercial segment given the slowdown, he said that real estate business over the last two years we have had record sales and that the company will continue to grow both businesses though commercial segment as it is doing better. The factor contributing to such kind of growth even in a phase where construction projects are facing liquidity and demand-related obstacles is the reputation of the group and trust of the people on the brand.
When asked about his vision on India and Godrej group in next five to ten years he stated that he believes India has a great future. On purchasing power parity, India will be the largest economy in the world by 2050. At present, India is ranked third after China and the US and will overtake both. India will also overtake China on population. As far as the Godrej Group is concerned, it will keep growing faster than the economy.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com website)

The closing price of Godrej Consumer Products Ltd was ₹ 525/- as of 13rd March 2020. It traded at 36x/ 31x/ 28x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 15.6/18.1/20 respectively.
Consensus target price of ₹ 750/- implies a PE multiple of 37.5x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 20/-.

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31 Oct

Fashion segment grew in double-digits on a base of 18-20%: Mr Kishore Biyani, CEO, Future Group

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed up with 0.5% gain at 11,844. GAIL (+6.3%), Grasim (+3.6%) and SBI (+3.5%) were the top NIFTY50 gainers. Infratel (-5.2%), Yes Bank (-3.6%) and Cipla (-2.1%) were the top NIFTY50 losers. Among the sectors, NIFTY PSU BANK (+3.7%), NIFTY IT (+1.4%) and NIFTY FMCG (+1.0%) were the top performers while NIFTY MEDIA (-0.6%), NIFTY REALTY (-0.5%) and NIFTY AUTO (-0.3%) were the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview with Mr Kishore Biyani from Livemint on 30th October 2019:

  • Festive demand starts in August sometime with Onam for Kerala and that did quite well. Followed by Puja in the Eastern part of India which again did very well. Dussehra in some parts of India also did well.
  • Diwali started a little late and the business picked up from September and till now they have been seeing some very good traction on Diwali also, but it picked up late.
  • They deal in food, fashion as such. For food, the consumption continues. It is all about some category shifts here and there. Fashion surprisingly has done well for them.
  • Men’s fashion has changed significantly in terms of what a man is wearing and after a while, the change has come in. So, change is making fashion drive that business. Value fashion has done well.
  • Central has done phenomenally well which is a departmental store format which has achieved its numbers.
  • Women’s fashion has been a little slower than what it used to be last year and they are seeing some shifts in footwear also.
  • With the wedding season starting November onwards, they expect to see a lot of shifts which are going to happen. This summer, weddings were much slower, so any category which was related to wedding had seen some kind of sluggishness, whether it was personal care, beauty, footwear —anything related to the wedding saw some moments which were much slower than expected.
  • The larger ticket size items definitely, which we are hearing in terms of auto sales, real estate sales, consumer durables have held on onto some categories, again some categories have seen some slowdown there, but in smaller ticket items also we are seeing some variation.
  • Fashion has done very well in 2018. So they are looking at a huge base of growth of 18-20%, but fashion would have grown in double-digits in 2019 for them.
  • Non-fashion, food in the first quarter grew quite well. Second-quarter has been little lower than Q1, but nevertheless, the growth continues.
  • Foodhall is breaking even and Foodhall, in fact, has probably done better. Now they have three Foodhalls in Mumbai and four in Delhi. This festive season Foodhall has done brilliant numbers because of the gifting backlog they had. A lot of gifting orders they had picked up this year.
  • ₹650 crore of extra EBITDA in Future Retail definitely helps in the long term to build a very strong balance sheet.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener & Investing.com website) 

Future Retail:

  • The stock price was ₹ 383/- as of close price of 30th October and traded at 22x /23x /20x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E of  17.4/ 16.9/ 19.5 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 560/- implies a Price to earnings multiple of 29x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 19.5/-.

Future Lifestyle Fashion:

  • The stock price was ₹ 410/- as of close price  of 30th October and traded at 38x /31x /28x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E of Rs 10.8/ 13.5/ 15.0 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 555/- implies a Price to earnings multiple of 37x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 15.0/-.
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11 Oct

Godrej Consumer Products: On track for a gradual recovery in volume growth

Update on the Indian Equity Market

On Thursday, NIFTY closed 79 points lower to 11,234 reversing Wednesday gains. Result season began today with TCS and IndusInd bank. Market movements will be influenced by quarterly financial performances. Amongst the NSE 50, top gainers were BHARTIARTL (+4.4%), GRASIM (+3.7%), RELIANCE (+2.7%) while INDUSINDBK (-6.0%), YESBANK (-5.4%) dragged index down. In the sectoral indices, Pharma remained stable; while all others saw a decline. Banks (-2.7%), Realty (-2.1%), Financial Services (-1.9%) were the biggest losers.

Godrej Consumer Products: On track for a gradual recovery in volume growth

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Vivek Gambhir, MD & CEO, Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GODREJCP); dated 9th October 2019 with CNBC TV18:

  • GODREJCP expects to deliver higher single-digit volume growth in 2HFY20 if the recovery sustains. There is a Month on Month (MoM) volume growth since July 2019.  The demand in 2QFY20 was stable Quarter on Quarter (QoQ).
  • GODREJCP has been launching new products in the insecticides segment. It expects to turnaround this segment on the back of new innovations. 
  • In the soaps segment; GODREJCP has maintained the price levels in the competitive pricing environment.
  • Margins are volume-driven. The company is positive on maintaining margins as long as the volume growth sustains.
  • GODREJCP enjoys a strong market position of the ‘Ezee’ and ‘Genteel’ brands in the liquid detergents segment. It intends to capitalize on the market leadership and scale up the presence in the liquid detergents and specialist laundry solutions over the next few years.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of GODREJCP was ₹ 680/- as of 10-October-19. It traded at 43x/ 36x/ 33x the consensus EPS for FY 20E/ FY 21E/ FY 22E of ₹ 16.0/ 18.7/ 20.9 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 688/- implies a PE multiple of 33x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 20.9/-
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