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25 Aug

Housing Finance book is expected to grow five times in next five years – Bandhan Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
Markets started the week on a positive note with Nifty50 rising 95 points higher at 11,466. Among the index, ZEEL (4.8%), KOTAKBANK (3.5%) and INDUSIND (3.3%) were the top performing stocks while POWERGRID (-2.0%), M&M (-1.2%) and ADANIPORTS (-1.1%) were the laggards. Within the sectoral indices, PVT BANK (2.4%), BANK (2.4%) and FIN SERVICE (2.1%) were the top performing sectors whereas REALTY (-1.0%), PHARMA (-0.4%) and IT (-0.3%) were the only the sectors closed the day in red.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr.Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Managing Director & CEO, Bandhan Bank (Bandhan) published in Economic Times dated 23rd August 2020:
It is good that failure on large exposures happened very early into Bandhan Bank’s journey, which helped limit the losses and affirmed that it will never lend to the large segment again.
He said that there is a huge opportunity in the rural affordable housing segment. The focus is on housing finance space and the target is to grow the loan book by five times in the next five years to Rs 1 lakh crore. This, he expects will occupy nearly a third of the Rs 3.5 lakh crore lending book that the bank has targeted.
The business has had cycles of good growth, which gets followed with some impact due to changes in the overall environment beyond the bank’s control, and specifically mentioned demonetisation and the current COVID-19 pandemic which led to a full wipeout in collections.
When asked about setbacks like repayments impact due to the anti-CAA protests over the last year, he said till date, not a single rupee of loan has been written off in Assam and the reverses it faced because of the protests are a part of business.
After becoming a bank, its rate of lending has reduced to 17.95 per cent from 22.4 percent earlier and will reduce further as the share of the low-cost deposits will grow, he said, admitting that in the beginning, getting people to deposit was a challenge because the whole system had been tuned as a model focusing on lending and not liabilities.
Small borrowers prefer paying because they understand the importance of a commitment to repay and do not mind sharing the benefits of a growing business with the financier who helped make it possible. He also said more than the rate of interest, a borrower is more concerned with delivery of simple and timely credit for all.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: marketscreener website)
The closing price of Bandhan Bank was ₹ 295/- as of 24-Aug-2020. It traded at 2.7x/ 2.3x/ 1.9x the consensus Book Value estimate of ₹ 108/ 129/ 159 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 372/- implies a BV multiple of 2.3x on FY23E Book Value of ₹ 159.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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01 Feb

Growth picking up post demonetization, GST- Mr V.P.Nandakumar, Manappuram Finance

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY closed -0.6% lower. Among sectoral indices NIFTY Metal (-2.3%), NIFTY Pharma (-1.2%), NIFTY IT (-1.1%) closed lower while, NIFTY Realty (+1.2%), NIFTY PSU Bank (+0.8%), NIFTY Bank (+0.6%) higher. The biggest gainers were Kotak Bank (+3.7%), SBI (+2.4%), IndusInd Bank (+1.9%) whereas Tata Motors (-5.0%), ONGC (-4.5%), and PowerGrid (-3.6%) ended with losses.

Edited excerpts from an interview of Mr V.P.Nandakumar, MD, CEO, Manappuram Finance on CNBC-TV18

  • Targeted growth in gold loan had been 10-12%. In three quarters the achieved growth is 11%.
  • Price increase of gold has helped the company and that has led to volume growth.
  • Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are doing well and the asset quality is also maintained in this difficult hour for the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) industry. The gold loan industry and the MFI industry are faring better.
  • Overall demand is better  in last three quarters.
  • In non – gold loan, the recovery is slightly less because of natural calamities such as floods, political issues.
  • There is some interference of local politicians with the collection but the companies themselves are confident of achieving it.
  • 10%-15% AUM is growth is expected. changes made in regulation, demonetization, GST have crippled the market. The market is now picking up post-GST, demonetization.
  • The company has raised $300 Mn as overseas bonds and the cost is 11.6%. The coupon rate was 5.9% but because of hedging, the all-inclusive cost is about 11.6%.
  • The domestic cost is easing because of the banks’ lending rates, it has slightly come down. It is now 9.25%.
  • Speaking about the decision to take dollar loan Mr V.P Nandakumar says, the domestic cost is low but the sectoral liquidity pressure cannot be ignored. There is liquidity pressure in the NBFC sector.
  • Mr Nandakumar says natural calamity is a challenge that the company faced. In the last year, there had been floods and that had led to delays.
  • Speaking on asset quality, he says, the company is analyzing district wise and pin code wise. with these measures, he doesn’t think the asset quality will deteriorate any further.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Manappuram Finance was ₹ 188/- as of 31-January-20. It traded at 2.8x / 2.3x / 1.8x the consensus Book Value for FY20E / 21E / 22E of ₹ 64.9/81.6/101 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 190/- implies a Price to Book multiple of 1.8x on FY22E Book Value of ₹ 101.
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