Tag - Steel

30 Aug

Strong tailwinds for Steel production in India – Jindal Steel and Power

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, markets ended at an all-time closing high with Nifty closing 226 points higher to close at 16,931. BHARTIARTL (5.0%), DIVISLAB (4.2%), and AXISBANK (4.0%) were the top gainers on the index while TECHM (-1.4%), NESTLEIND (-1.1%), and EICHERMOT(-1.1%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  METAL  (2.5%), PSU BANK (2.0%), and BANK (2.0%) were the top gainers, while IT (-0.6%) was the only laggard.

Excerpts of the Interview with Mr. VR Sharma, Managing Director at Jindal Steel and Power Ltd on Economic Times, dated 24th August 2021:

  • The steep fall in Iron Ore prices has lifted the market spirits across the world. However, that hasn’t translated to a fall in steel prices due to stiffness in coking coal prices and high input costs for other ferrous metals. 
  • The lower iron prices aided by a $1000/MT steel price in international markets are translating into improved gross margins for producers, and the market will likely stabilise at these levels.
  • India has to reach a level of about 300 million tonnes by 2030. In nine years, it may be producing about 300 million tonnes of steel and consuming the same quantity. 
  • Overnight it is very difficult to build up capacities. Building up capacities takes about three to four years, all-steel producers are bullish about India’s prospects, and a Rs. 2 tn investment is expected to be made over the next 5 years.
  • The sector is showing healthy growth and the demand has already begun to pick up, the company expects the entire steel sector to shine in the upcoming years.
  • Steel demand will continue because infrastructure projects are in offing and there are a lot many projects on the table now. The construction sector is booming and the shipbuilding sector, defence sector, and the oxygen cryogenic plants are increasing in terms of number.
  • Headwinds such as adverse Chinese Steel Policy, logistical bottlenecks, Covid induced supply disruptions have led to coking coal prices being inflated. This is putting pressure on steel prices which are not expected to recover in the short term.
  • The industry expects to shift from coking coal to indigenous coal, which is both cost friendly and environment friendly and offers protection from such price shocks.
  • The Chinese steel industry has seen a  dip in production and consequently exports, being the second-largest steel producer, India is well poised to take the benefits of  Chinese fallback,

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • The cyclical recovery in the steel sector may have finally arrived. With the tailwinds for this industry, it is likely to grow fast over new capex and recovery cycle for the decade. 
  • Jindal Steel and Power is one of the largest steel producers in India. It is well poised to reap the benefits of scale and the tailwinds. It is likely to deliver great value to its shareholders.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Jindal Steel and Power was ₹ 379/- as of 30-August-2021.  It traded at 7x/5x the EPS estimate of ₹56/₹ 77  for FY22E/23E. 
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 538/- implies a PE multiple of 7x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 77/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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07 Jul

Steel prices to be under pressure in the short term – Jindal Steel and Power

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended higher with Nifty closing 61 points higher at 15,879. TATASTEEL (+5.0%), JSWSTEEL (+2.7%), HINDALCO (+2.1%) were the top gainers on the index while TITAN (-2.0%), ONGC (-1.2%), and MARUTI (-0.9%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  METAL (+2.2%),  REALTY (+2.0%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+0.6%) were the top gainers, MEDIA (-0.2%), and AUTO (-0.1%) were the only losers.

 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. V R Sharma, MD, and CEO of Jindal Steel and Power on CNBCTV18 dated 5th July 2021:

 

  • Short-term pressure on Steel Prices is seen in International and European Spot Markets, with the prices hovering around USD 1,100 and 1,200 per tonne. This due to lower exports to Europe due to tariff and quota fears.
  • There is a value difference of around USD 200-250 per tonne between export and Indian domestic markets. There is a scope of reducing the delta to around USD 150 per tonne.
  • There is pressure on the demand for hot-rolled coils which forms part of the company’s exports which are 35-40% of the company’s total sales. This has resulted in the prices reducing to USD 1,020 per tonne.
  • The prices of other products are stable. 
  • There is a softening of about Rs 1,000-1,200 per tonne across all the products, which is normal because international prices play a vital role in today’s markets.
  • In terms of domestic demand, steel plates have shown a good demand and hot-rolled coils have shown moderate demand. The demand is very sluggish in the structural steel, construction steel, and rebar segments.
  • The company has produced 2.03 million metric tonnes of steel in 1QFY22 and is on track to manufacture 8.3 million metric tonnes for FY22. The exports for 1QFY22 were 0.6 million metric tonnes with full-year exports expected to be around 2.8 million metric tonnes.
  • The Company has Rs 165bn of debt as of 1QFY22 which the company is planning to reduce below Rs 100bn over FY22.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the demand for steel across domestic and international markets has been impacted. With the economic recovery,  there’s optimism for the sector.
  • The Company is taking efforts to deleverage its balance sheet in order to improve its performance across key operating metrics which will help the company grow further.

 

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Jindal Steel and Power was ₹ 400/- as of 7-July-2021.  It traded at 5x/ 8x the EPS estimate of ₹ 75/ ₹ 51 for FY22E/23E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 513/- which trades at 10x the EPS estimate for FY23E of ₹ 51/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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29 Oct

Operations back to pre-Covid levels – JSW Steel

Update on the Indian Equity market:
Amid weak global cues from spiking Covid-19 cases worldwide and uncertainty over the US presidential election, Nifty 50 ended 1.3% lower at 11,730 on Wednesday. Among the stocks, BHARTIARTL (3.4%), UPL (+2.8%), and M&M (+1.2%) led the gainers while HDFC (-3.5%), INDUSINDBK (-3.2%), ICICIBANK (-3.2%) led the losers. None of the sectoral indices ended the day in the green. FINANCIAL SERVICES (-2.3%), PRIVATE BANK (-2.2%), FINANCIAL SERVICES 25/50 (-2.1%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview of Mr. Seshagiri Rao, Joint MD, and CFO, JSW Steel with Financial Express on 27th October 2020:
• JSW Steel reported strong numbers for the September quarter with improvement in revenues and margins. Volumes were significantly better, both on a YoY and MoM basis. There has been a strong recovery in business activity as compared to 1QFY21. Although there are certain seasonal factors that impact demand in 2Q the overall environment is upbeat and expects the second half to see strong growth momentum.
• There is a very good improvement with regards to offtake by the auto sector. The revival in the auto sector was unexpected and sales to the auto industry went up 33% YoY.
• Although the commercial sector is still lagging, tractors, two-wheelers, and passenger vehicles are doing reasonably well. The demand is not expected to weaken in 2HFY21, on account of the festive season and the government’s attention to give fiscal stimulus. Demand will definitely see an MoM improvement, though YoY improvement will still take some time.
• There is good traction in the coated steel products, appliances, packaging, solar and government-aided projects. Rural demand is resilient and good monsoon and government initiatives will improve demand further.
• Long product demand was impacted by the monsoon and remained low. Construction activity has gained pace now and both 3Q and 4Q are expected to see good demand. Packaging and color-coated areas saw good offtake, which is expected to continue the rest of the year.
• Operations are back to pre-Covid levels and achieved average capacity utilization of around 86% in the quarter, versus 85% in 2QFY20. There were some disruptions due to the unavailability of iron ore and due to the increase in exports, evacuation of iron ore from other mines remained a challenge. The company is hopeful of the situation normalizing in the next quarter.
• In the second quarter, the steel prices have gone up by 11% and international prices have gone up by 16%. There has been an improvement in sales realizations, though realizations in India are increasing at a slower pace compared to that globally.
• The costs during the quarter were lower on account of the natural gas price which has come down. The power cost is lower because thermal coal prices have come down. Iron ore prices have gone up due to supply constraints. They will be able to reduce the cost of transporting iron ore from the mine to the railway siding, to an extent. They are also working on reducing the mining costs and want to set up a slurry pipeline to bring iron ore from the mine to the port. Though that will take time, once construction is completed, logistics costs will reduce drastically.
• The share of value-added and special products has now increased substantially to 51% of sales volume. There is substantial demand for color-coated products is on the rise from steel-using industries. There are plans to expand capacities at the Vasind, Tarapur, and Kalmeshwar plants by the end of this financial year.
• Once the high margin business like Asian color coated started coming in, margins will also get a lift.
• The NCLT has given approval for the plan to acquire the Asian Colour Coated Company. They are awaiting the final order to see if there are any modifications.
• They expect the Bhushan Power and Steel resolution to be settled by December 2021.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
• The closing price of JSW Steel was ₹ 306/- as of 28-October-2020. It traded at 18x/ 12x/ 10x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 17.3/ 26.3/ 30.4 per share for FY21E/FY22E/FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 303 implies a PE multiple of 10x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 30.4/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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14 Aug

Making structural changes to diversify from auto industry – JSW Steel

Update on Indian equity market:
Nifty remained muted on the weekly expiry day, ending 8 points lower at 11,300. Within NIFTY50, TATAMOTORS (+4.5%), LT (+4.4%) and HINDALCO (+4.2%) were the top gainers while SUNPHARMA (-2.1%), EICHERMOT (-2.1%) and BHARTIARTL (-2.0%) were the top losers. Among the sectoral indices, MEDIA (+1.4%), AUTO (+1.2%) and METAL (+1.1%) were the highest gainers whereas PSU BANKS (-1.0%), PHARMA (-0.9%) and BANK (-0.3%) were the laggards.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Seshagiri Rao, Joint Managing Director & CFO, JSW Steel (JSW) published in Economic Times dated 04th August 2020:
•Mr Rao said that in the normal scenario, the company was supplying about 2 million tonne to the Auto sector from the total annual capacity of 15 million tonne. During the pandemic lockdown, the number had dropped by as much as about 65%.
•The company is witnessing demand for steel picking up in tractors and two-wheelers. The demand from top-2 passenger car makers, Maruti and Hyundai has been improved in July over June. The demand for steel in the commercial vehicles segment however remained depressed.
•The company’s alloy steel plant at Salem produces about 1 lakh tonne out of which 70,000 tonne capacity is on rolling basis. There is one bloom mill completely dedicated to the auto sector, and there is a bar mill which can have multiple applications, and finds use in the sectors other than the auto also.
•In the lockdown, the bar mill production was not reduced, whereas the bloom mill production came down to 0 in the month of April, which is currently operating at 10,000- 15,000 tonne a month.
•The changes that company is making on the Auto side are not temporary, they are all structural. The growth in demand for steel from the Auto sector is not the same as the industry has witnessed in the past. He expects it to never be the same and therefore diversification has a strategic component with itself.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
•The closing price of JSW Steel was ₹ 259/- as of 13-Aug-2020. It traded at 38x/13x/ 9x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 6.8/ 20.5/ 27.8 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
•Consensus target price of ₹ 233/- implies a PE multiple of 8x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 27.8.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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02 Jul

Steel consumption up in sectors linked to rural economy – Tata Steel

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, Nifty ended 1.2% higher at 10,430. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were Axis Bank (+6.3%), UPL (+5.3%), and Bajaj Finserv (+5.2%) while the losing stocks were NTPC (-2.1%), Nestle (-2.1%) and LT (-2.0%). Sectoral gainers for the day were PSU Bank (+3.6%), Bank (+2.8%) and Financial Services (+2.7%) while the losers were Pharma (-1.0%), Realty (-0.7%) and IT (-0.2%).

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr TV Narendran, CEO & MD, Tata Steel Ltd; dated 30th June 2020 from Economic Times:

  • The Company had tough six-seven months of the financial year starting from April last year till maybe October or November. Things started looking up after November. The demand started picking up. January to June is a peak season for steel consumption in India. So the steel demand was picking up. Apart from the auto industry, other industries were looking better and the steel prices were moving up. The Company started sensing things were going wrong because of the pandemic. It impacted them in Europe in February and they knew it was going to come to India as well. Tata Steel started taking some precautions by the end of February in India.
  • Prices in India were static because there were no sales but the fact that inventories were building up meant that all Indian producers were trying to export. So the export markets were crowded with Indian suppliers towards the end of March and early April.
  • By the end of April, China started pulling in quite strongly so a lot of steel exports started going to China. The Company saw a recovery of the international markets starting in April.
  • Between April, May, and June, steel prices have gone up by about $50 a tonne. The fact that Indian steel producers could export and had an export option, kept the domestic prices quite stable.
  • There was some pricing pressure because the prices have been trending upwards till March. There were some price corrections in May when the transaction started but the international prices were quite strong.
  • Consumption growth was seen in sectors which are linked to the rural economy.
  • In the automotive business, the tractors business has been reasonably strong. Motorcycles have been stronger than scooters because they are both dependent on the rural economy.
  • Rural infrastructure spending by the government has been positive. Tata Steel sells a lot of steel i.e., about 20% of their revenues, to the rural economy. The roofing sheets and reinforcing steel for the individual house builders segments are panning out strong.
  • The non-tractor and non-motorcycle automotive commercial vehicle, passenger vehicles are still quite a weak sector. There is some sign of improvement. Any improvement is only going to get them back to where they were last year and not where they were a year before last. So, it is a long haul back for them, according to Mr Narendran.
  • Tata Steel saw an EBITDA improvement in Kalinganagar and Jamshedpur of about Rs 2,000-2,500 a tonne Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) which was on the back of cost takeout and price hikes. Tata Steel would have sold at least half a billion tonnes more had there been no lockdown. This would have helped them in cost as well as realisations. They have lost half a billion tonne of March sales which was at the highest price.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Tata Steel Ltd was ₹ 324/- as of 01-July-2020. It traded at 6.8x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 47.8 for FY22E.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 376/- implies a PE multiple of 7.9x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 47.8/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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30 Apr

Higher but manageable inventory levels – MrAnil Kumar Chaudhary, Chairman, SAIL

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

 

On Wednesday, NIFTY50 closed positive (+1.8%) at 9,553. Within NIFTY50, HINDALCO (+7.0%), ADANIPORTS (+6.6%) and HDFC (+6.5%) were the top gainers, while AXISBANK (-3.6%), ASIANPAINT (-2.7%) and HINDUNILVR (-2.4%) were the top losers. Among the sectoral indices,METAL (+3.7%), FINANCIAL SERVICES (+3.4%) and MEDIA (+2.7%) gained the most. FMCG(-0.4%) andPHARMA (-0.01%) closed in the negative.

 

Higher but manageable inventory levels – MrAnil Kumar Chaudhary, Chairman, SAIL

 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Anil Kumar Chaudhary, Chairman,SAIL broadcasted on CNBC TV18on 24th April 2020:

  • As with most industries, steel industry is also facing issues in running facilities. Steel is a continuous process industry and has to continue to run albeit at a lower level.
  • Domestic orders have dried up. SAIL is dependent on export orders for now. As a result of continuous production and lower sales, there is a buildup of inventory.
  • Chaudhary believes that the current inventory level is high but manageable. Higher inventory is not unprecedented for steel industry. Current inventory for SAIL is close to 2 mn ton.
  • Inventory level was also high during the slowdown in July- October 2019. 31st October 2019 also had high inventory like current levels. But as of 31st Jan 2020, the inventory levels reduced to 1st April 2019 level.Mr. Chaudhary expects that similar performance will repeat if everything goes well and lockdown lifts on 3rd May 2020.
  • Chaudhary is confident that after lifting of lockdown there will be substantial demand from construction and infrastructure sectors. That should take care of SAIL’s high inventory levels. Other sectors such as automobiles or engineering may take time to revive.
  • For SAIL specifically, they have not seen issues in logistics. In lockdown, railways have become more efficient and even portsare able to handle exports.
  • Cash flow is a bit strained due to lower sales and continued fixed costs. Quite a few debtors have been due for repayments and SAIL has been getting those payments.
  • After lockdown, road transport has to be restored. Government is also really concerned about current state of affairs and they also want to ensure that the supply chains are restored as fast as possible.
  • SAIL has close to 70,000 employees.SAIL has to be able to ramp up production in time to bring down per ton cost of production. SAIL continues to incur fixed costs of about Rs 15,000 mnper month, major expense due to employee cost.
  • Chaudhary is confident that some government measures are going to help such as waiver of certain charges from power companies in some states. Interest cost in % terms has also come down.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website and investing.com)

  • The closing price ofSAIL was ₹ 30.1/- as of 29-April-2020. It traded at 8.4x/ 4.1x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 3.6/ 7.3 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 35.1/- implies a PE multiple of 4.8x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 7.3/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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